| | | COG, CTX.AX, FST, Surgutneftegaz,
FWIW, SMID strategy
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (COG)
With ‘Worst Case’ Baked-In, Risk/Reward Looks Quite Favorable
1 April 2014 ¦ 22 pages ir.citi.com
Cabot has lost ~$2.6bn in market value (~$3.3bn relative to E&P Marcellus peer
performance) since its Q4’13 earnings release when it disclosed Northeast basis
differentials in January/February widened to -$0.65/Mcf (vs. prior FY’14 guidance
of $0 to -$0.40). We still model a full-year average differential of -$0.87 and 37%
production growth in 2014, a -$0.90 differential and 29% production growth in
2015, and a -$0.50 differential and 13% production growth in 2016. Notably, the
2017+ outlook actually improved with Cabot announcing firm transportation &
sales with the Sunrise Pipeline expansion.
Robert S Morris
Caltex Australia (CTX.AX / CTX AU)
Another refinery bites the dust
1 April 2014 sendspace.com
Forest Oil: The Sun is Peaking Thru the Tree Tops – Maintain Buy
Forest Oil Receives Covenant Relief and Reduces Borrowing Base
31 March 2014 ¦ 6 pages ir.citi.com
Forest Oil has announced the redetermination of its borrowing base and
covenant relief under its $1.5BN (notional) credit facility due 2016, to $300MM
from $400MM. FST currently has no outstanding debt under the revolver, and the
next borrowing base redetermination will be in 4Q 2014. We think it is a positive
that FST is able to put the covenant issues behind it and think that there could be
a natural upside to its borrowing base with a successful 2014 and 2015 drilling
program.
Marisa B Moss | Farah Zakir
Surgutneftegaz(pref) (SNGS_P.MM)
31 March 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Results: 2013 RAS net income, implied dividend a bit under Citi
expectations – Yield still a healthy 9.5%
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FWIW - SMID Bit
March Performance In A Nutshell
01 April 2014 sendspace.com
SMID Bit
Getting More Contrarian On Sectors
01 April 2014 sendspace.com
Small & SMID Cap Stat Pack
01 April 2014 sendspace.com |
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