>> i tend to think the insurers will be more amenable to pushing the cheaper alternative in the longer run. <<
I actually agree about that, was just stating the bear thesis. I think insurers will make the copays higher, at the very least, for the branded 3x version - and some might manage not to put it on their formularies. Needles are smaller these days and don't hurt much. Patients will have their own decisions to make about how much the needle hurts versus how much their wallet hurts. Those with a higher physical/fiscal pain tolerance might well switch back. I find it difficult to believe lots of doctors are going to push back against insurers in any significant way for the sake of less sticks for their patients. They don't have the time for such piddly stuff, even for long term patients. I think skepticism about actual similarity might play a bigger role, at least at first.
With all this in mind, I think generic Copaxones will win significant market share, but it's not going to be nearly as fast as with Lovenox.
I would be a buyer at these levels had the general market done more correcting. I think more correcting is coming, and it could take MNTA farther down. Not sure what to expect wrt the idea of approval in a couple of months now that SCOTUS is looking at the '808 patent. After looking at all the discussion about the USPTO denying reissuance and the SCOTUS review and what it all means . . . I'm just as uncertain as before. My strategy would be to buy half of what I might buy on further near term weakness, and the other half, probably next year.
With the mEnox revenue stream a trickle compared to the burn, it's hard to tell where the floor should be . . . If it breaks into the single digits, I think I will pull the trigger.
Cheers, Tuck |
