| | | WE are witnessing a really..... really large top in asset prices...... tops are multi- bubbly at larger tops.
Jim Chanos was on CNBC yesterday....outlining how valuations are so far removed from the early 2009 lows
Short-seller Jim Chanos says China is "panicking" in the face of a stalling economy. As the fast-growing economy now deals with a lending bubble, Chanos told CNBC's " Squawk Box" on Thursday his long-running bearish outlook is now coming to fruition. On Wednesday, the Chinese government vowed to cut taxes on small firms and said it would boost railway construction. Chanos said China has rolled out such "mini-stimulus" programs for years.
"One has to keep in mind, if you're a Western investor in stocks and bonds in China, you are investing in a scheme, not a market," Chanos said. "This is important. You are basically providing capital to them and you might not see any profits or dividends from them."
The country still houses massive stretches of unoccupied residential complexes, with three to six years of unsold supply left over outside of Beijing and Shanghai, Chanos said. Chinese growth figures don't account for sales, so the country's enviable growth rate includes construction
projects left empty, Chanos said. China fueled its construction boom largely on credit.
"Anybody who thinks that can't collapse because of too much lending has not looked at economic history," Chanos said.
Read More Looming debt defaults mark turning point for China
Positions against China make up about 20 percent of his short-only portfolio, Chanos said.
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The commentary that Joe Kernan provided yesterday about the central bank rigging prices to prop up asset prices has been observed and commented on by 23 outstanding market thought leaders that I know.
As Constance Brown pointed out in her most excellent book...... the market is about timing and those of us who have been around the block a few times knows that timing is a tune that dances at it's own speed.
the geopolitical problems of 2014 are developing... although Russia is playing a more leading role than China........ as of now.
Working with time cycles that are employed by several I know... the increase in earthquake and geothermal activity that we have seen the past month is like in the second or third inning of what is going to be a tumultuous upcoming 7 months.
Earthquakes and acts of Nature are largely non insurable events........
I am quite concerned that California and other areas on the ring of fire are in for an arduous 7 months..
THe old adage of selling in May and go away will apply this year...... and the High Frequency Front Runners...... ( that is a separate matter to be disscussed soon),,,,,,,,,,
but the point is that May comes earlier some years.... this is one.
John
(I am thinking about showing some mechanical trading methodology....... with the charts and the signals .... I have been a bit disheartened by the Negative experiences of AJ and several others on SI.........
but maybe it's time to put some of this out here on SI...... while we are all still "Young and free of spirit" - VBG
John |
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