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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM
QNTM 9.940-0.6%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: John A. Shaffer who wrote (6623)12/12/1997 10:11:00 AM
From: still learning  Read Replies (2) of 9124
 
Rather than fightingthe analysts and the tape, whatsay we look at their revised #s and see where we think the stock is going.

"We are decreasing fiscal 1998 estimates from $2.26 to 1.81, reducing our fiscal 1999
estimates from $3.45 to $2.50, and reducing our rating on the shares to a 3-Neutral"

If we see $1.81 this year (ALL: THIS DOES INLCUDE SPLITS!!!)
and $2.50 next year.

And we apply a multiple of 12x *as of March or mid-April (after Q4)*, we get a $30 price once we are safely into next FY. So we should get a price moving from $20 toward $30 this Spring. I think that'sthe short-term reality unless and until we get earnings revisions upward.

Given this hypothetical, what does everyone plan to do?

I will possibly sell a portion at $25, another at $30 to lock in some of my gains once we start going up (yes, I bought at an average of $17 and let this market steal most of it back). Given that I have a large position, I plan to hold 2./3 of it for long-term (3-5 years) but this time I may be prepared to take some money off the table.

Other opinions?
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