Under 700?
Coming from Robry gives that number a lot of credibility. If the EIA numbers are that far off, shoulder season price weakness may not happen this year.
......SEASON-END STORAGE LEVEL: I have been dreading posting on this (and promised myself that I would not until
......we were out of withdrawal season) but the producing-region-salt-skew has persisted... as storage in salt-domes
......has been far-less hit than conventional storage... and mathematically, I think the validity of the EIA's data reporting,
......collecting, and estimating process comes under question.
......The skew presently estimates out (in the EIA-weighted model) to an accumulated 239 BCF (EIA weighted model
......has 835 BCF in storage, Capacity/Gas-flow modeling 596 BCF in storage, and looking at the publicly-released storage
......levels (by operators such as PG&E, SOCAL, ANR Pipeline, Dominion, and Columbia Gas Transmission) the major
......players are far below the percentage-draw implied by the EIA, and the differences are so large that it is nerely impossible
......to take the EIA estimate as serious.
......So (in my own conclusions) storage at 835 is a statistical near-impossibility (based upon non-EIA storage reporting).
......Last years 3834 BCF 11/08/13 peak is therefore discounted, with the actual peak and trough being much more likely near
......the Capacity/Gas-Flow models 3470 BCF (11/08/13) and 591 BCF (03/31/14) output. It is extremely unlikely that storage
......is even above 700 BCF at this point. |
