from larry's e-mail...
>>Prices for a 16-Mbit DRAM on the spot market in Taiwan have
recently fallen by a staggering 25%, to $2.40 per unit this week from
$3.20 two weeks ago, said analyst Don Floyd at ING Barings Taiwan Ltd.
in Taipei. Prices for a 64-Mbit DRAM in the local market have fallen by more than one-half this year, to as low as $15.00 as of last week,
Floyd said.<<
AMAZING how mu sells their chips for $4.00 when everyone else sells theirs for $2.40 ;-)
couple things to learn from this. one, 16 mb is KILLING EVERYONE. 2. THE KILLING WILL CONTINUE. why? 16 mb is being sold by EVERYONE below the marginal cost of manufacturing. EVERYONE. HOWEVER, 64 mb dram ISN'T BEING SOLD BELOW COST. 64 mb is $15.
this EFFECTIVELY SEtS A CEILING ON 16 MB PRICING OF ABOUT $3.75 AS AN ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM! when it gets to $3.40 to $3.50 then whole sale changeovers to 64 mb chips will follow and demand for 16 mb chips will dry up and blow away. VERY BAD NEWS FOR MU SINCE THEY CAN'T AFFORD A 100% TO UPGRADE TO 64 MB AT THIS TIME. hey, they didn't EVEN MAKE BACK THEIR INVESTMENT IN 16 MB TECHNOLOGY. details, details, details. ;-)
the bottom line is that dumping charges against foreigners are fruitless b/c they'll transition to 64 mb and sell at cost - a per mb cost which will be a lot less than 16 mb chips. GAME OVER!
dave, btw, we're nowhere near $50 and it is almost january ;-)
60% CHANCE THAT WE SEE A LOSS THIS PAST Q AND 100% CHANCE THAT THE ANILISTS ARE WRONG ;-) 95% CHANCE THAT WE SEE AN OPS LOSS WHEN THE CURRENT Q IS REPORTED IN MARCH... |
