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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing

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To: Fintas who wrote (2502)	4/13/2014 6:31:14 PM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar cmhj2000 Read Replies (1) of 15903

Hi my good friend...... technical analysis is just one part of the puzzle.... as I stated on Jan 20th 2000.....on my thread head..... I was taught by Tony Jalondoni....(the treasury manager of Citibank in Sydney ) back in 1986... that is interest rate differentials and the changes in the interest rate differentials in currencies .... spot... but even more in forward currency rates.... and not just 90 days but going out 2 to 5 years ......was the key driver of global asset flows through global asset classes. Henry Volquardsen inculcated this in me ...speaking with him several times a week on the phone for an hour or more and then by studying his masterful missives on Silicon Investor. Henry Volquardsen who was at 55 water street ... Citi's big dealing building just off Wall street when we were working together at Citi in the 1986-1988 time period.... Henry was on the long date FX desk and was doing a lot of trading with the Australian Dollar and AUD bond market..... the currency floated in 1985 started at 1.15 and by June of 1986 had collapsed to a low of .5790 The yield curve was massively inverted with 90 day bank accepted bill rates at 15 and 18% and the AUD 10 year bond was up at 12%..... a bulge bank trader had enormous opportunities to create swaps and engage in Forward FX positioning.......spreads you could drive a truck through......and de facto large arbitrage money to be made..... so long as you kept an eye on YOUR COUNTERPARTY RISK.... and Your LEVERAGE ratio's I would talk with Henry on the phone for an hour or more many mornings since when it's 8:30 AM in Sydney... it's the very late afternoon in New York..... the deal room in NY has mostly gone home and you are waiting for the action in Sydney and then in Hong Kong and Singapore to kick in. Mr Jalondoni had the 2nd biggest currency limit world wide at the Citibank, which was making 800 million in foreign exchange trading a huge cash cow for the bank and more than 400% larger than the number 2 and 3 players back then. He was a soft spoken man from the Philippines.... but he was an avid user charts and the large 10 year weekly charts.... available from Knight Ridder. ( I just hung 4 of my old charts up on the wall) I spent a lot of time in his office speaking with him and the lady who was running our OTC currency options book..... she was running it out of his office.. In 1983 when I got the first IBM PC I was on Summer break from UT and my Father and I were getting Price data from the Dow Jones Computer in Princeton NJ and having it sent to us via the internet.... and the initial modem baud speed was 300 bps. The data came in so slow you could read it crossing the screen on the computer.... and I'm talking about the basic open high low close and volume data on stocks, OEX options etc. anyway getting back to your point Technical Analysis is not the single key....... Now if you build Robust Trading Systems and manage RISK..... it starts to make sense. Risk Management is the Single biggest Key to Investment success. garp.org The Global Association of Risk Professionals has a very good program on Financial Risk Management garp.org I am thinking about taking it. my best regards, John

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