<<I think the main point is the bad news was out before anyone could react - typical.>>
I don't agree. I don't know how long you've been following the industry, but the last time the industry tanked as a whole, the first sign was a weakness in Asia combined with an early earnings warning from KLIC. That was a couple of years ago, I can't even tell you the year, but I remember it.
I'm not getting into a "long-term vs. short-term" discussion. I'm not, at this point, in the industry at all, much less a volatile area like photolith. Not long, not short, not buying or selling options, either short-term or long-term. This bronc's gonna' buck without me!
The analysts are just beginning to lower ratings. Asyst took another haircut today, and there may be more to come. The point is, it's just impossible to get a firm grip on the industry's mid-term future, and Cymer is the most volatile of the bunch. Anyone who thinks the semiconductor industry "must" buy 1000 DUV lasers from Cymer for the next 8 years is out of touch with reality. There are about 20 things that could go wrong with Cymer's business, and a few of them have already happened.
Point is, I've seen this ship sink before, and it started just like this. Maybe it has bottomed now. My fingers are crossed that it has, for all of my buddies who are long at this point. But I think your criticism of me for yelling "abandon ship" is misplaced.
And (just so I don't start pounding my chest TOO hard) I can say this with the perfect clarity of hindsight. I hope I'm not sounding too much like a jerk, I really am trying to help out here. This thread needs some negative balance. |
