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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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From: Bill Harmond4/21/2014 6:17:00 PM
   of 57684
 
NFLX Briefing Summary

21-Apr-14 16:19 ET



Netflix beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line



Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.86 per share, excluding non-recurring items,

$0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.82; revenues rose

24.0% year/year to $1.27 bln vs the $1.27 bln consensus.



o Co guidance for Q2 above consensus, sees EPS of $1.12, excluding

non-recurring items, vs. $0.99 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

o Q1 Performance vs Guidance



o Domestic Streaming

o Total Subscriptions: 35.67 mln, Guidance 35.67 mln

o Net Additions: 2.25 mln. Guidance 2.25 mln

o Revenue: $799 mln, Guidance $796 mln

o Contribution Profit: $174 mln, Guidance $796 mln

o International Streaming

o Total Subscriptions: 12.68 mln, Guidance 12.53 mln

o Revenue: $267 mln, Guidance $267 mln

o Contribtution Profit (Loss): ($35 mln), Guidance ($42 mln)

o Global

o Net Income (Loss): $53 mln, Guidance $48 mln

o EPS: $0.86, Guidance $0.78

o Netflix Q2 Guidance



o Domestic Streaming

o Total Subscriptions: Guidance 36.19 mln

o Revenue: Guidance $835 mln

o Contribution Profit: Guidance $223 mln

o International Streaming

o Total Subscriptions: Guidance 13.62 mln.

o Revenue: Guidance $304 mln

o Contribution Profit (Loss): Guidance ($12 mln)

o Global

o Net Income (Loss): Guidance $69 mln

o EPS: Guidance $1.12

o Excerpts from Letter:



o Net additions: 'Our net additions for Q1 were 0.22 million more than prior

year Q1. As we've discussed previously, U.S. net additions in Q2 will

generally be lower than in the prior year Q2, even in a year with full year

growth, due to increased seasonality. This Q2, we expect our domestic net

additions to be about 0.11 million below the prior year Q2'.

o International: Due to rapid growth in our international segment we aren't

experiencing the same level of seasonality as in the U.S., and we anticipate

over 50% y/y growth in Q2 net additions despite slight headwinds from the

World Cup...Our present international segment is on a path to achieve

profitability this year'.

o Free Cash Flow: 'With further international expansion in the second half of

this year reducing net income, we expect free cash flow in Q4 to also be

reduced'.

o Price Changes: 'As expected, we saw limited impact from our January price

increase for new members in Ireland (from €6.99 to €7.99), which included

grandfathering all existing members at €6.99 for two years. In the U.S. we

have greatly improved our content selection since we introduced our

streaming plan in 2010 at $7.99 per month. Our current view is to do a one

or two dollar increase, depending on the country, later this quarter for new

members only. Existing members would stay at current pricing (e.g. $7.99 in

the U.S.) for a generous time period. These changes will enable us to

acquire more content and deliver an even better streaming experience.'
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