Why do you assume global unit share is supposed to be correlated with Apple's price movement? I know you (and most here) disagree, but I see the global share (which is ultimately tied to margin + sales interaction) as the most critical predictor of the longer-term outcome for Apple (unless they make a dramatic move to open their devices to non-iOS software, which almost no one thinks will happen). Though I recognize that investors, even as a whole, aren't always rational, I still take it as the odds working more in my favor when the numbers diverge. In my estimation, a ~14% jump in price combined with the latest week of data that shows the downside share trend worsening is a golden opportunity. Doesn't mean AAPL won't be above 620 in another week, but I'm playing the odds. (And got really lucky for the first hour ;)
Surely you agree by now that the vast majority of the smartphone market is irrelevant to Apple's business. They sell iPhones to people who can afford them, and this appears to be a profitable and still growing business. I don't. The latest numbers certainly shocked me, but they don't show growth that is remarkable versus anything but the previous expectations. And the iPad disappointment, while not as critical as the iPhone good news, was drastic. I'm in a minority here, but I think that the iPad woes and Samsung's problems portend what we'll see with the iPhone 6.
Nothing really left that will show whether I'm correct or not... must wait and see. |
