Jim Sinclair Toronto Meeting Notes
copied from silver66 here:
tfmetalsreport.com
April 26 Meeting notes with Jim Sinclair
Here is a summary of my notes from the meeting, it is not exhaustive or even a representation of what was said, rather it is what I heard and chose to write down.
I attended Jim’s first roadshow in Toronto last year, this was an opportunity to hear his wisdom again and for me to compare his message to see if there were changes to his outlook. A fellow stacker that attended did so to get a feel of Jim as a man. He wanted to compare what he reads on his website to him the man. He was very impressed with Jim.
The facilities were more moderate than last meeting (this is neither good nor bad, it is tough to top the Royal York). I would guess there were 170-200 people there, predominantly male and based on the cars in the parking lot, affluent. The crowd at his first meeting was older than this crowd. It appeared to be more in the 35-50 age group range.
Jim’s team provided each attendee with attendee with a list of what he considered to be valuable resources, he also had Bo Polny in attendance and Mr. Polny joined him on stage for the Q&A
Jim started off with a 20 minute monologue/speech covering many topics, then answered some pre-sent e-mail questions. We had a break then 3 hours or so of Q&A
I am going to make most of my observations into bullet points
Jim started off with this statement
Nothing has changed in 2 yrs regarding the OTC derivative market, OTC derivative market has grown. The regulators live in fantasy world for letting them Mark value to Maturity. This is not going to happenWhen businesses are a going concern the bets (Jim is adamant that derivatives are just casino bets) are notional. They become real value ( fully valued ) when a firm goes bankrupt.BIS and IMF situation is bad for the OTC Derivatives (? Not sure why I wrote this down) Jim must have had a seniors moment because he said Christine Legarde was a good looking lady, I damn near spit my coffee out on that statement, but I guess we all have our own crosses to bear…J2015-2017 (June) is the time frame for the great leveling. I will add more latter on his thoughts on thisInflation is growth of monetary aggregatesDeflation is death of debtVelocity of money is the speed a dollar turns overCessation of the petro-dollar. The POS index is firm right now, even though this is artificial. &^ on the POS is dangerous and Jim believes that the POS will go to 56 just not tomorrowHe had high praise for Charles Nenner—Charles expects a significant reversal of the last two years in PM’s. The dollar will enter a bear phase and a topping of markets.Jim spent a fair amount of time on inflation. He was adamant that we not fall for the assumption of no inflation and that Central Bankers and Politicians do not understand “currency induced cost push inflation”Thoughts on Gold and Silver
Jim thinks you should own some…. J
-Silver will break out first in the next move in gold. He expects that move to be significant. Silver is for trading. It will be exciting. His stack is 75% in PM’s gold and of that 75% 25% is Silver and 75% is gold
-Goldman just gave the producers a buy recommendation, wonder why that is? Having the right juniors will be turbo charging your portfolio
-Jim thinks this period we have been in is uncannily like 73-76 in the last gold bull market
-Gold silver ratio going to be back at historical 10:1 in 2020. However is short term it will probably get to 30:1 and that would be a good time to convert silver holdings to gold
-Bear market in PM’s is behind us and Bull market is ahead of us
Bo made comment that potentially this week (May 1st we could see start of explosive move) based on his cycles and chart work
Bail In
-Based on 1845 British Law, you are a unsecured lender when you deposit money to the bank or brokerage
-Euroland has decided that 8% of banks losses are to be born by the unsecured creditor. Look to how much derivatives the bank has and take 8%, if their capital is not at least that much, then the depositor gets to share in the pain L
-Jim made a gracious offer that if you e-mailed him he would send a list of banks that took aid in the crisis.
-Jim strongly encouraged people to do business with local credit unions
-2020 is the finish line, Jim thinks the progression for bail ins is Euro, US then Canada.
-Brokerage firms can be subject to bail ins
GOTS (get out of the system)
Jim offered anyone that e-mailed him that he would send them a step-by-step list of how to get your stocks into direct registration
Many of the questions were from people with RSP’s in Canada. For Turdites from around the world these are Registered Saving Plans for retirement. The government allows you to deduct your investment that you put into the RSP and it grows tax sheltered. It is however held by a trustee and as such you can not have direct registration of the securities in the plan. This caused much gnashing of teeth and grumbling when people realized that if they want to GOTS then they would have to deregister the money and pay the tax
BRICS
-BRICS are the wild card.
-The old money families (Rothschild’s and Rockefellers) have controlled things unchallenged since the 1800’s. The BRICS are their first real challenge and the outcome is unknown
-Gold is coming back into the system but does not feel that the currency will be gold backed, just the ultimate judge
-When asked about a one world currency he feels the BRICS have prevented that.
My question was
Q The Euro marks its gold reserves to market each quarter and the USA still carries it gold on the books at $42.22 (assuming it is still there). Will the USA ever mark its gold to market?
A yes and it does not matter if it is there or not. They will mark what they say is there to market
A follow up comment by Jim, take the central banks around the world that market to market and color those countries on a map with a gold pencil and it will be about half. The trend is more moving to mark to market
- Be your own central banker
-The BEAR is awakening, pay attention
THIS and THAT (not sure where to put these ideas)
Bo Polny
-Sequence of events
*** Cycles are there and events must occur to complete the cycle***
the reason cycles are there is people do not change, we do not learn and that is why history repeatsGreat Leveling
-Implosion of general equity market (late 2014-to end of 2015)
-Commodities lower
-Roll over in banks
-Significant bankruptcies
DOW/ Gold ratio will move to .75:1 that will be the time to exit gold and buy other assets
Federal Reserve websites have very good info for teaching children about money and currency
TNX- is pleased with the progress, marching to production, cash in bank
Silver66’s closing thoughts
Jim was more focused on cycles of markets than last meeting. He is passionate about protecting your purchasing power from erosion due to inflation. Gold and Silver are the way to do that. Buy till it hurts with the caveat that you must make the level of your ownership commiserate with your understanding and comfort level.
Jim is a gentleman and it was a pleasure to spend 5 hours with him
Hope these notes were of value
Stack till it hurts
Silver66 |
