There would still profit left after your proposed 30% price cut, but even if unit sales doubled, profits would drop.
Before adding in incremental gains in ad, app, media, and accessory profits, yes. But after?
As for ancillary revenue, I'd like to see your math. Getting too detailed with the math is a bit silly, as there are so many possible forms a partnership and more open device could take that focusing on one wouldn't be meaningful. But you're being fair in requesting at least a basic example of how it could work. I don't have ready access to the latest #s (you seem more on top of it), and I'm not inclined (at least not right now) to format a business case scenario on it. But let me point you to my thinking and maybe you'll be inclined to run the #s.
Yes, the ad growth is a huge factor. To look at that part, pull up Google's financials and see what the mobile revenue growth trend is.
As for $10/year/user as a current base for Google, you have to define precisely which sources you're counting. Purely ad revenue coming from clicked mobile ads? Including app revenue? What about about services? And longer tail revenue from getting a user more locked into the "ecosystem" (via a Google account or otherwise)? Remember - any form of partnership would allow Apple to monetize all of these same areas to varying degrees, more so than they are doing now.
And the split wouldn't be 50/50. With Apple's volume, they'd be able to negotiate a lot more favorable split. |
