I'm of the mind that if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Fair enough, but to survive sometimes, you have to see what's coming and act before it gets there.
Apple's business model is 4X more profitable than Google's. If Google ever manages to earn $40B in a year, maybe that will give Apple a reason to emulate them. Three huge differences... GOOG's revenue and profit growth are much more steady and substantial, and their suite of products generating it much more diverse. You used to hear in the press that they are a one-trick-pony because they rely 95%+ on ads (which is worse than AAPL's ~60% dependence upon the iPhone, but that was before it became clear that the dominance in ads is so strong that it's really a matter of which products are using the ads - not vulnerability of the ad platform itself.
Until then, Apple probably has their own idea how to grow profits from here, and I doubt advertising is a big part of it. I'll add to my vastly unpopular CY2015 vs CY2014 prediction a wild one for CY2016... that Apple will move at least somewhat in the direction that I'm suggesting (either opening up, partnering or acquiring a better ad platform). I agree with you that it's unlikely, but I'm just saying more possible than impossible.
Incidentally, I have never once clicked on an ad on my iphone. if someone is spending $20 a year advertising to me, they are wasting their money. Someone clicks on ads, buys apps & services... the revenue is very real. (Remember also that it's not just direct clicks... when you search and go to a site, there's derivatives there as well.) |
