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Politics : Politics of Energy
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (50635)5/4/2014 3:05:13 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 86356
 
Hi Wharf Rat; Re: "Sometimes a picture might be worth 1000 words to the verbally impaired.";

Now you've told us that global warming dates to around 1850 and this graph shows why you're scared of it. Let me repeat it:



Indeed, it shows temperatures steadily increasing in a wave-like fashion. In fact, if the above graph were extended into the past by another 100 years it would show temperatures rising from the bottom of the "Little Ice Age".

And we know that, according to the physics, temperatures should increase according to the logarithm of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. And that's why you believe that the small changes in CO2 early in the graph caused relatively large increases in temperature (as seen in the slope around 1920 to 1950).

The question is how does this graph extend into the future.

And this is where we differ. I'll draw how it is that your side concludes that temperatures will probably rise above 2C by 2100 and my side believes that they'll probably stay well below 2 C. I'll do this by drawing the extensions on your own graph:



In other words, the alarmists got worried because of the steep rise in temperatures from 1980 to 2000 and they managed to convince themselves that it was going to keep going up. See how the red line cuts the peaks and valleys nicely from 1980 to 2005? That's why your side was convinced it was right up to round 2010. But since then temperatures have escaped from the red line. Instead, climate is following the more complicated cyclical climb with peaks cut by the green line.

And now you can see why so many climate scientists believe that temperatures could continue to "pause" or even decline, for the next 25 years and then peak again around 50 years from now (but at a temperature much lower than 2 C). And you can see why your side lost the scientific argument and therefore lost the political argument. I expect that some of y'all will keep fighting the fight but you won't have any more effect than those Japanese soldiers who refused to surrender in 1945.

-- Carl
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