Sorry.. my bad.. should have said 1998, I guess..
But Hansen predicted his worse scenario based upon a 1.5% per year increase in CO2. But CO2 has apparently been increasing at a rate of 2.5% per annum..
Translated from original German:
The CO 2 emissions have since 2000 with Increased 2.5%, Which Means That You We Should expect a more drastic temperature increase enlarge than in model A. In the figure three scenarios are shown together with the Observed global temperature curve - all shown as 5-year running mean . kaltesonne.de
Yet, OBSERVABLE temperatures have barely met Scenario C.
But what is MORE evident to me is that instead of seeing consistent rises in temperature per year, we seeing dramatic fluctuations, to include places like S. Africa seeing snow in 9 different provinces for the first time in recorded history. This should not be happening if the trend is for GLOBAL warming (not just regional warming hotspots)..
We haven't seen the sea ice in the Arctic disappear, as long ago predicted. There is still snow falling in the UK (as well a lot of rain)..
And there's still that embarrassing flawed expedition of AGW scientists who, retracing a 1913 expedition where sea ice was absent, being stuck beyond seaborne rescue in incredibly thick ice flows during an Antarctic summer..
It's just disgusting to see every weather related event, hot or cold, being blamed on AGW. It's beyond logical sense.
But it will be interesting to see if the next 17 years are warmer, or colder, than the previous ones..
Watch Solar Cycle 25 for clues, IMO.
Hawk |
