| | | AKSO.OL, AQA.AX, CVE.TO, CVX, D, DO, FI, Gazprom, HES, OIS, OXY, PACD, PSX & PSXP, RDSa.L, RRC, Rosneft, SFY, SM, STL.OL, SUBC.OL, TOTF.PA, VET.TO, WLL, Global Explorers, European Integrated Oils
Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL)
When breaking up is easy
05 May 2014 sendspace.com
Aquila Resources (AQA.AX / AQA AU)
Baosteel and Aurizon make $3.40 cash offer
05 May 2014 sendspace.com
Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)
EPS in-line: Grand Rapids Moves Ahead; Buy
30 April 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Slow Start to 2014; Gorgon Now 80% Complete
02 May 2014 sendspace.com
Dominion Resources Inc (D)
Q1 Results above Expectations - Weather; Improved Margins Drive Quarter
30 April 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO)
Lowering Estimates on Contracting Challenges for Older Floaters
30 April 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
DO’s 1Q14 earnings of $0.93 were substantially higher than our estimate of
$0.38 because two rigs (the Ocean Onyx and the Ocean Alliance) that were
scheduled to be out-of-service in 1Q14 had their scheduled downtime shifted to
2Q14. As a result contract drilling expense was much lower than our estimate
and the company’s prior guidance. The weak market for older floating rigs was
fully evident although the company did secure contracts for the Ocean Quest, the
Ocean Monarch, and the Ocean Victory.
Robin Shoemaker
Frank's International (FI)
Every Miss Should Look So Good
02 May 2014 sendspace.com
Gazprom (GAZP.MM)
2nd look at 2013 IFRS results – Focusing on cash flows
30 April 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Hess Corp (HES)
EPS Beat on Production; Initial Bakken Downspace Tests Positive
30 April 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Oil States International (OIS)
Laying It All Out There
02 May 2014 sendspace.com
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Through the Restructuring Noise, 2015 Should be Better
06 May 2014
Pacific Drilling (PACD)
OK Quarter, but Waiting on Brazil Contract Extension
05 May 2014 sendspace.com
Phillips 66 / Phillips 66 Partners
Results Largely In-Line; 22% Distribution Increase at PSXP
30 April 2014 ¦ 15 pages ir.citi.com
PSX 1Q’14 EPS of $1.47 was above our $1.32 and $1.37 consensus estimates.
Better midstream, marketing and CPChem results along with lower taxes and
share count caused the beat. PSXP reported 1Q’14 adj. EBITDA (including
adjustments related to minimum volume commitments) of $23.8 mil, which was
~1.7% lower than our estimate of $24.2 mil and ~1.7% lower than consensus of
$24.2 mil. However, the 22% increase in distribution was above our estimate.
Faisel Khan, CFA | Mohit Bhardwaj
Range Resources Corp (RRC)
Swapping Conger For Remaining Nora Interest Plus Cash
30 April 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L)
LNG, US Gas & Better Downstream Underpin a Surprise 1Q
1 May 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Our sector-wide thesis for Big Oil in 1Q is of stabilizing/improving trends around
earnings and returns and we would argue that results to date have lived up to
that expectation. RD Shell did better. 1Q earnings were 45% above our and
consensus forecasts, with much of the delta we think explained through
seasonally strong LNG trading and good Gulf Coast refining conditions. The
quarter does suggest that our forecasts for Downstream have been too low; both
from an operational and earnings (impairment = lower depreciation) perspective.
Revising that view sees us raise our 2014E EPS by 12%, our 2015-18E EPS by
an average of 5% and our DCF valuation (and price target) from 2250p to 2350p
(A/B shares).
Alastair R Syme | Michael J Alsford
Rosneft (ROSN.MM)
Results: Q1 largely in-line at operating level – Focus on efficiency
1 May 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Swift Energy Co. (SFY)
Waiting for Godot... and Asset Sales
5 May 2014 sendspace.com
SM Energy Co (SM)
Back To The Penalty Box; Maintain Neutral Rating and $85 Target Price
1 May 2014 ¦ 19 pages ir.citi.com
Statoil (STL.OL)
Stronger 1Q14 Increases Confidence in Delivery of Key Targets
1 May 2014 ¦ 18 pages ir.citi.com
Statoil’s strong 1Q14 results increase confidence on the delivery of the key
targets outlined at Statoil’s recent Capital Markets Day. 1Q14 results highlighted
strong performance from International E&P and MPR and solid progress with
Statoil’s key operated NCS developments (Gudrun started up in 2Q14 while
Valemon on track for 4Q14). However, we think Statoil’s valuation now looks to
better reflect the improved outlook. We have updated our forecasts following
Statoil’s 1Q14 results, increasing our 2014 earnings by c.10%, driven primarily by
the strong 1Q14 numbers. We have also increased our 2015-20 estimates by 4-
7% to reflect our expectation of lower group taxation (<70%) due to the increased
contribution of international E&P and MPR. We increase our DCF-based price
target to NOK180 (from NOK160) to reflect our higher earnings forecasts and
improved confidence in the delivery of capital efficiency targets over this period.
We retain our Neutral rating.
Michael J Alsford | Alastair R Syme
Subsea 7 (SUBC.OL)
Accelerating Activity, Rising Payout
1 May 2014 ¦ 12 pages ir.citi.com
Subsea 7’s cheap valuation - 5.2x 2014e EV/EBITDA, a 25% discount to the
sector – reflects concerns over further write-downs on Guara-Lula, prospects for
2014/15 order intake, and margin embedded in the current backlog. We expect
the coming six months to largely assuage all three: Guara-Lula should continue
to de-risk (already >70% complete), YoY backlog growth seems likely, and we
expect material improvement in North Sea and AfGoM margins in 2Q/3Q. In
short, the prospects for re-rating appear favourable and we maintain our Buy
rating. We have made minor earnings changes post results.
Ryan W Kauppila | Nikhil N Gupta | Alastair R Syme | Michael J Alsford | Mukhtar Garadaghi
Total (TOTF.PA)
1Q14 Supports Valuation Running-Room; Upgrade TP To €57
30 April 2014 ¦ 15 pages ir.citi.com
Total’s message of profitable growth and a strong pipeline has struck a chord
with the market – YTD returns +12% versus market and +9% versus the sector.
1Q14 is not standout, but does show a picture of improving free cash flow and
we think good project execution. We are raising our expectations on delivery of
the portfolio to 2018 (which we were previously discounting). We raise our
2017E+ EPS by 3% and our DCF-based price target from €50 to €57/share. We
maintain a Buy.
Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET.TO)
Q1 Beat; Corrib Is Still Key
05 May 2014 sendspace.com
Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL)
Small Bump in Redtail Recoveries, Bakken Pending
05 May 2014 sendspace.com
Global Explorers
FORTNIGHTLY
You Know The Drill!
02 May 2014 sendspace.com
European Integrated Oils
"If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster"
02 May 2014 sendspace.com
US EIA Petroleum Statistics
Inland crude glut continues to creep into the Gulf Coast
30 April 2014 ¦ 27 pages ir.citi.com
US crude stocks continued to rise even with elevated refinery runs and lower
imports. Cushing stocks fell 0.6-m bbls and could accelerate to a 2-m bbl draw
next week, as pipelines stepped up capacity. A lot of things need to come
together to draw down PADD III crude stocks, which rose 5.7-m bbls w/w to 215-
m bbls. Crude export outlets would be the most helpful; the pace of export
license approvals has been impressive, but can these step up?
Eric G Lee | Christopher J Main | Aakash Doshi | Seth M Kleinman | Edward L Morse |
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