HI John; DEAD CAT..is very risky in this market..every thing
getting hammered, funds tring to unwind and lock in profits..
no dead cat is really safe if the whole market is sliding,
and TECHs are sliding too..the fund dunbs are to busy selling
to try and get any bargians now..if ORCL coundn't bounce,
SEG couldn't..and none of them have , don't count on finding
one that's going to buck the trend..less than a 5% chance
of any thing having enough bounce to offset the commishion cost
at this point..dead cat bounce works OK in up markets, but
there are more losers than winners in down drafts as broad
as this is. When ORCL didn't bounce I got back out by the
skin of my teeth, and took a second look..the dead cat
is dead for the time being..INTC, IBM, MSFT, CSCO all have
to start up in union..before things can turn around.
THey are the BIG support under this market..and Mutual
FUNDS are locked into a selfmade trap as long as thoes
biggies all inch down..if you win a dead cat now..you'l just
set yourself up to lose the next 3 or 4..
pull this in a up market..avoid it in a down market.
I'm talking from the pain I'v had before learing it.
Come back to playing dead cats when the over all market is
up..other wise you will learn the hard way like I had to.
BTW I was wrong saying the worst was over in that last message,
I was to hasty..I like not to have got out of ORCL..I do see a
rally Monday..but I don't know now if it can last..to much
damage controal being played by the funds..
I have put all dead cat plays on hold for a while, even though
your idea looks like a good one, and I think a market bubble
may make it happen monday..it's still too risky..
JIm |
