APC, AWE.AX, BPL, DRC, EOG, KOS, LINE & LNCO,
ORG.AX, PBF, RIG, ROSE, SPN, Surgutneftegaz,
Annual Texas Power and Gas Trip Takeaways,
Frontier Markets Highlights
Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC)
Q1’14 Beats; Raising 2014 Production & Capex Guidance; Upgrading to Buy with $115 Price
Target (up from $112)
6 May 2014 ¦ 12 pages ir.citi.com
Anadarko reported recurring Q1’14 EPS/CFPS of $1.26/$5.00 versus our
$1.19/$4.23 estimates and Street consensus of $1.15/$4. Based on actual Q1
results, updated 2014 cost guidance, and the new production/capex guidance,
we are adjusting full-year EPS/CFPS estimates, increasing our price target to
$115 (from $112), which still equates to a 2015 ‘normalized’ EV multiple of ~6.9x
and also 93% of our sum-of-the-parts NAV, and upgrading APC to Buy.
Robert S Morris
AWE Limited (AWE.AX)
Pateke-4H adds marginal value, focus remains Oi-1
5 May 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Reiterate Buy – AWE represents outstanding value in E&P small caps
Buckeye Partners LP (BPL)
Results In-Line Despite Inclement Weather
2 May 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Dresser-Rand Group (DRC)
EPS Beat Expectations in 1Q14,
Raising Price Target
4 May 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
It wasn’t a great quarter but DRC beat lowered expectations and the company
affirmed its full year guidance with respect to bookings, revenue, and operating
income. Our 2014 EPS estimate of $2.67 is within the company’s guidance range
of $2.60 to $2.80. It is hard to get a read on the full year from the seasonally
weak first quarter results, but the company seems confident that an upturn in
new unit orders will begin as soon as the current (second) quarter.
EOG Resources Inc (EOG)
Q1’14 Beat; Four New Resource Plays In The Mix; Reiterate Buy
6 May 2014 ¦ 12 pages ir.citi.com
EOG reported recurring Q1’14 EPS/CFPS of $1.40 /$3.94 versus our
$1.18/$3.63 estimates and Street consensus of $1.19/$3.56. The beat was driven
by higher-than-projected U.S. oil, NGL and natural gas production, all of which
were above the high-end of guidance as were Trinidad natural gas volumes,
along with lower-than-forecast G&A which was below the low-end of guidance.
TP up by $10, to $115.
Robert S Morris
Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)
Q1 Wrap-Up: First Swing In 2nd Inning Of Exploration Is A Strike
5 May 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
Linn Energy, LLC & LinnCo LLC
No Surprises in 1Q14; All Eyes Now on Permian Assets
5 May 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
Linn reported 1Q14 distributable cash flow per unit of $0.72, essentially in line
with our forecast of $0.71 for the quarter. Based on a distribution of $0.725 paid
in the quarter, the coverage ratio in 1Q was 0.99x and the cash shortfall was $3.0
mil. Adjusted EBITDA in 1Q14 of $564 mil was 1% higher than our estimate of
$559 mil due to higher than expected production volumes and lower than
forecast production taxes.
Faisel Khan, CFA
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX)
Initiate with a Buy – Gas Business Upside, APLNG to be OK
6 May 2014 ¦ 36 pages ir.citi.com
We initiate coverage on Origin Energy with a Buy rating and A$16.79/shr target
price. We are positive on APLNG execution, expecting delivery on schedule and
on budget with first sales production in 2Q CY15. While we only expect a small
increase in electricity margins going forward, given ORG’s strong supply portfolio
coupled with oil-linked sales contracts from CY15, we forecast Energy Markets
Gas business adding >A$300m EBIT from FY13 to FY17. Our FY14 EPS
forecasts are 9% below consensus, due to lower E&P production and exploration
expense, but we expect the market to focus on FY16 earnings post APLNG-start
up.
Koenders | Vishesh Pachnanda | James Byrne
PBF Energy (PBF)
Beat on Lower Crude Costs; Maintain Buy
5 May 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
Alert: Another Step to Divest Non-Core Assets
5 May 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
Rosetta Resources (ROSE)
Alert: Q1’14 Results Miss & Permian Catalysts Pushed Out
5 May 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
Superior Energy Services Inc. (SPN)
Strong Improvement in the Near-Term Outlook
5 May 2014 ¦ 18 pages ir.citi.com
We believe that SPN has come through the North America drilling downturn in
excellent shape and that it is well positioned to capture market share and to take
advantage of an improving outlook for oilfield service pricing. Following a series
of cost-cutting steps in 2013, SPN is poised for a quick and sustained return to
earnings growth thanks to a tailwind from the markets in 2014. We believe that
as free cash flow builds the company will pursue more aggressively the cash
dividend and share repurchase policies it has already put in place.
Robin Shoemaker
Surgutneftegaz(pref) (SNGS_P.MM)
2013 IFRS results – Largely as-expected, more details on cash situation; Prefs have achieved
parity with commons
5 May 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Annual Texas Power and Gas Trip Takeaways
Meetings with PUCT, ERCOT, and Citi Energy Traders
5 May 2014 ¦ 12 pages ir.citi.com
Citi hosted several meetings with ERCOT, PUCT commissioners/staff, and a
large group of senior energy traders. Topics covered include capacity markets,
ORDC, Texas load growth, REITs, liquidity, demand response, CSAPR,
commodity price outlook, PJM gas and power markets, CAL-ISO, MISO, solar,
wind, and distributed generation, and electric vehicles.
Shahriar (Shar) Pourreza, CFA
Frontier Markets Highlights
Nigeria Due a Comeback / Buy Hikma/ Central Asian E&P / Halyk Bank Upgrade to Buy
2 May 2014 ir.citi.com
A round-up of research views across the Frontier Markets from Citi Research. |
