| | | Energy Weekly: Tensions in Ukraine Mount And Geopolitical Temperatures Rise
7 May 2014 ¦ 13 pages ir.citi.com
‘Rising geopolitical temperatures’, glooms Commodities analyst Seth Kleinman,
‘have helped support oil markets during the seasonal nadir for refinery runs... as
global run rates pick-up into Q3, escalating tensions in Ukraine and others can
continue to provide support to oil prices through 1) a physical disruption of
flows directly reducing crude supply, something seen steadily increasing since
2011, and 2) a hoarding of physical barrels and a run-up in financial net length as
investors become increasingly worried about potential future disruptions, as was
the case during the Syrian crisis... the stand-off in Ukraine, which further
intensified over the weekend following clashes in Odessa and Sloviansk, continues
to dominate Brent flat price action... while Iran and Libya, the two big bear risks
looming in oil markets, are both showing marginal signs of improvements, several
oil producing countries (Nigeria, South Sudan, Iraq) are experiencing
deteriorating and/or increasingly violent domestic situations’. |
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