<<< First off, look at the stock prices of semi cos and semi fab cos falling at the same time. If Korea is so financially damaged that it can't update semi fabs -- and this is likely -- how will it remain competitive with the US in this area? And, won't worldwide semi fab capacity plummet? (By the way, I follow the Asian newsfeeds and I've noticed the debt rating of the Asian semi cos has gone WAY down) Imagine what a wonderful position this puts US semiconductor companies in as they are not confronted with severe debt problems or local hyperinflation, as some of their Asian peers are. No wonder a few of the smartest semi cos have announced stock buybacks. The bottom line is the Korean semi companies are going to have all kinds of financial and logistical problems which US companies won't. I am already seeing direct evidence of this. >>>
Dan S., Dan R., DJ, everybody else,
First of all, nice writeup Dan S., DJ.
I read both sides of the argument and I am now confused. I need you guys economic expertise to straighten me out.
I agree wholeheartly with you guys that a lot of companies are blaming all their malaise to Asia for no good reason. ORCL got into trouble perhaps because of competition from Microsoft. What does Electronic Imaging make? Printing equipment. Is Asia such a big market for it? I don't think so. But then there are a whole range of companies that are really affected by this Asian economic downturn.
First Dan S., you said that the Korean companies will have all kind of financial problems to buy equipment and build fab. Do you think companies like Samsung are short in cash now? I know that Samsung just made a huge order with AMAT for chip gears and they have to pay in dollars. With the won dropping in value at least 50% now, it will cost them double to buy the equipment. But my question is are they short in cash? I thought only Korean banks with loan tied up to real estate got into trouble. Do you think that the Korean semi companies currently have adequate equipment to continue to meet any kind of demand without need for buying new one for the foreseable near term?
Second, with the devaluation of the won, is there any fear that the Korean companies will dump chips into the US at low price?
Third, what do you guys think about US companies that use fab or buy components from overseas such as from Taiwan and Korea? Are they getting the benefit of having plenty of capital to do the research and development, and at the same time getting low cost components from overseas? See this post for reference: exchange2000.com
Fourth, could you summarize in a few words, which types of U.S. tech companies do you think will benefit or get hurt by the Asian flu?
Sorry for the long list of questions but your opinions are highly regarded. |
