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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.10+2.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (42044)12/12/1997 7:36:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Arik, I'm very much in agreement with your bearish sentiment

I think we can now begin to speak about a crash rather than a correction.

I've been watching the Asian developments very closely since their inception. I expected the Korean collapse to happen with the exception of one element. I did not believe western banks would permit a default on Korean foreign debt. If that happens I believe we will get a collapse in markets worldwide.

The failing of the first round of IMF support happened very quickly. What everyone underestimated was how much off the book debt existed in Korea by Korean companies. Clearly the Koreans are trying to bail out all of these companies instead of letting some go down. The only analogy I think is easy for Americans to understand would be what happened with Chrysler here in the US. As a result they haven't got enough foriegn currency to bail out everybody. A liquidity crisis is brewing unless western countries hand them an awful lot of cash. I would be listening very closely to what the Citibanks and forign lenders in the Korean market are saying, particularly in Europe, about all this.

As to INTC and MSFT. These represent my two biggest short positions. I think any bounce back up on MSFT is another shorting opportunity for me. I even think it can be shorted at its current price by those that haven't fone so. INTC is getting into a new trading range. I'll stick by my previous analysis.

Thanks for taking the time to point out to everyone here again the danger of thinking that "prosperity is just around the corner".
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