Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Petz who wrote (26698)	12/12/1997 8:30:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) of 1575114

Is the plunge in semiconductors over? History argues NOT. The SOX index peaked on 8/21 at (about) 406, but held up well through 10/13 (390). Today it closed at 248.18, which is -39% from the high and -36% from the 10/13 level. In 1995 the index peaked at (about) 303 in early September and bottomed in the second week of January at (about) 170, a decline of 44%. From there it rallied 25% twice, then resumed its decline to 140+ in late July, 1996. If history repeats itself (which it never does), semiconductors will not rally until the index reaches 218 to 227 in late January, which is a further decline of up to 12% and the eventual low below 200 will be 20% below current levels. BTW, during this entire >50% decline in '95/'96, the Dow never experienced more than a 6% correction! Food for thought. Petz

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