Nor does the fact that I think the trend we're seeing with Samsung's expensive phones and Apple's tablets is a precursor of a continuing move to cheaper high-quality devices.
Wow, lots to mull over here, but let's start with this point first. (One step at a time). What trend are we seeing with Samsung's expensive phones? What I see with the the S5 launch is a stable high end of the market growing at high single digits (as indicated by sell in of 11 million already per the CEO, and faster rate than the S4, and indications of stronger US sell through trends by Canaccord and Chitika). This corroborates Apple's own results (17% growth in the March Q).
Can we agree that the high end of the phone market is not shrinking and the sky is not falling (yet)? You can always claim that the wheels are bound to fall off the wagon eventually, but for now, I see no evidence that premium sales (in absolute terms) are in jeopardy. As a percentage of the whole smartphone market, yes, the high end is losing share, as it has for probably the 3rd year in a row, but I fail to see the relevance to Apple, who only sells high end hardware. All that matters is that Apple's addressable market does not shrink, and so far, it continues to grow. Is the growth the stuff of 30x multiples? Of course not, but neither is Apple priced for 30% growth. |
