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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 385.99+1.6%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: elmatador who wrote (106102)5/18/2014 1:59:17 PM
From: bart133 Recommendations

Recommended By
elmatador
Haim R. Branisteanu
Tommaso

   of 217740
 
Very much similar from here with "stuff" happening here, the over 65 times frequently suck health wise.

It's not a shock that Krugman blames Bush for the debt growth, while not mentioning his own huge push for much more money printing and debt growth, and conveniently forgetting what he recommended in 2002:
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." Source

I'm also very wary of the widespread sentiment about disinflation and secular stagnation, per contrary opinion theory, especially since I recently called a bottom in both CPI-U and my own Consumer Purchasing Power Loss Index (CPPI). All it takes to unpleasantly surprise more than a few folk is for consumer sentiment to keep climbing and thereby change the downtrend in money velocity, and much of all the money created in the last 5 years will come home to roost and affect inflation substantially, although demographic trends will slow it down. War could do it too. I'm also eagerly watching how the immigration situation works out, it could affect US longer term demographic trends a lot.

I do generally agree on stagnation, although I'd prefer to call it stagflation with my corrected CPI-U having been above GDP for some time now. Shadowstats gap is way higher than mine too.

Not a surprise on real interest rates either, Reinhart and Rogoff's work after the Excel errors are corrected (which made Krugman look more like the fool he actually is) pretty much explains it. High debt levels are a huge load on consumer spending psyches, and provide even more reason for the Fed to create even more money and try to use consumer inflation sentiment as another tool for "recovery". And the Fed is very likely to overshoot, due to the difficulties of getting monetary traction since 2005 as you noted.

Deleveraging is pretty much over too, in my opinion.



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