Zeev,
<< I think that the market wants to get really exuberant before the mid January decline, what better way than making a new high on the Dow without confirmation from the troops? >> (12/5)
On 12/5, you said, "The market was handed an excuse to go down today (strong employment and 24 years low in unemployment) but did not use it. Go figure."
Today, I say, "The market was handed an excuse to go up today (*) but did not use it. Go figure."
* Treasury bonds were buoyed by an unexpected 0.2 percent
drop in November's Producer Price Index. Economists had
expected a 0.1 percent rise.
The data was seen as further reducing the likelihood that
the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at a
policy-making meeting on Tuesday.
The long bond was up a full point in late trading, its
yield dropping to 5.93 percent from Thursday's close at 6.00 percent.
I see that you are still holding to your 3 to 5 weeks of rebound before the massacre in January. (This despite the fact that Mark Schulz finally went BEARISH and announced today that he would be short for the rest of the year. "The Chartist" also leaned towards bearishness for the first time today stating that the Nasdaq closed only 1 point higher than its 10/27 close ("very troubling") and if it closes lower next week, this would give their first SELL signal since May. Suddenly, the market and advisors are saying what you and Mohan have been warning about for the last couple months.
Is it possible that the year-end rally will be skipped this year? What signs would we get? Or are we too oversold by the big drop on Nasdaq this week?
I sold my Compaq put for a small profit on Wednesday, missing a much bigger profit opportunity yesterday. I am looking to sell my December BAANF put Monday or Tuesday. It has dropped nicely the past four days, continuing to go down today even after the Dow rebounded. Is selling it Tuesday safe, or could the market rally early?
As always, your thoughts and inputs are GREATLY appreciated !!! : ' )
You are often wrong, you change your opinion frequently (like any good indicator in response to changing conditions), BUT YOU ARE UNCANNILY ACCURATE A GREAT DEAL OF THE TIME. I am constantly amazed. Your call on gold prices, for example. Everyone was screaming that the Gold Bull Market had started, and you pegged the current decline perfectly!
Thanks again for everything.
Best regards,
Happy |
