Posting to Kimberly Alexy (Lehman Brothers):
Jeff, given that we know that these "bright" analysts probably read SI, lets see if they will respond and explain their reasoning. As you had mentioned, I also believe many are "contrarian indicators". They are basically covering their a$% when producing a report.
__________________________________________________________________
Kimberly, you previously had QNTM rating as a strong buy (1) and I assume this rating was in place when QNTM was $40-50 also. What could have possibly altered this rosy outlook on Dec 11, AFTER QNTM announced an earnings shortfall. Lets see, the troubles in Asia (dumping, currency,stock market etc.) suddenly appeared on Dec 11th. Or was it the "unexpected" earnings shortfall announced by QNTM. Lets see, how many DD makers/suppliers had announced previous revisions to their earnings, prior to Dec 11 ? One, Two, All ? Might have given you a hint. Does the disk drive industry have a cyclical earnings pattern ?
If I had followed your advice "strong buy" at $40. I'd by pretty Pis*&^. How could you be so wrong with your projections ? What should I do now, given all the bad news is factored into the price ?
Thanks for your insight.
__________________________________________________________________
Jeff, many analysts appear to have minimal ability to look forward, or the balls to publically go out on limb in making their recomendations. Much easier to watch a stock triple, THEN put out a "strong buy" (as if they had made the call in the first place), then AFTER the stock loses 60% of its value, put out a "neutral" (industry term for a sell).
But, their rating unfortunately impacts a stock price. Saying that, buying QNTM (or other DD's) will probably take awhile to pay off (ie. you have be in for the long haul - year or so). The earnings will have to return to "better than projected" before they will revise their ranking.
Good Luck (from another DD player) |
