WRT increasing oil production in Mexico... they've messed up so much of the Cantarell super field that I'm not sure we can expect much increase in production there even if they allow foreign companies in. Production in that very important field has been decreasing faster and faster due to mismanagement of the field and one reason Mexico may become a net importer of oil.
Quote from recent press release: "Mexican authorities expected the decline to continue in future, and were pessimistic that it could be raised back to previous levels even with foreign investment."
"In mid-2008, Pemex announced that it would try to end the year with Cantarell producing at least 1.0 million barrels per day (160×103 m3/d). However, in January 2008, Pemex said that the oil production rate at Cantarell had fallen to 811,000 barrels per day (129,000 m3/d) by December 2008, a decline of 36 percent from a year earlier. This resulted in a decline of total Mexican oil production declining by 9.2 percent from 3.1 million barrels per day (490×103 m3/d) in 2007 to 2.8 million barrels per day (450×103 m3/d) in 2008, the lowest rate of oil production since 1995.
"As for its other fields, 40% of Mexico's remaining reserves are in the Chicontepec Field, which was found in 1926. The field has remained undeveloped because the oil is trapped in impermeable rock, requiring advanced technology and very large numbers of oil wells to extract it. The remainder of Mexico's fields are smaller, more expensive to develop, and contain heavy oil and trades at a significant discount to light and medium oil, which is easier to refine.
"In 2002 Pemex began developing an oil field called "Proyecto Ku-Maloob-Zaap", located 105 kilometers from Ciudad del Carmen. It is estimated that by 2011 the field will produce nearly 800 thousand barrels per day (130×103 m3/d). However, this level of production will be achieved by using a nitrogen injection scheme similar to that of Cantarell. That same year, Pemex decreased its reserve estimate by 53%, from 26.8 to 12.6 billion barrels (4.26×109 to 2.00×109 m3). Later the estimate was increased to 15.7 billion barrels (2.50×109 m3)."
So who knows really what can be done in Mexico... as you say, Iso, it will be some years before much of the above is really clarified. As for the Proyecto Ku-Maloob-Zaap, if they mess up the nitrogen injection as badly as they did with Cantarell, they will only see a very temporary increase in production there, IMO. |
