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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Earlie who wrote (25090)12/13/1997 12:46:00 AM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (3) of 132070
 
Your points are well taken, but I am right on the 25%-75% declines by number of tech companies (not market capitalization weighted), which is what I said:
-every semiconductor company
-every semi equipment company
-every software company but MSFT
-every hardware seller but IBM, HWP and DELL
-every ECM company
-every disk drive company
-almost every electronics parts distributor but ARW and AVT
(There may be a few exceptions, since I do not pretend to be familiar with every tech company.)

The smaller the capitalization the worse the damage and, as I said,
many (especially smaller ones) hit their highs in the Spring of 1996.

This may be a 4 times in a century event we are facing now. In that
case your pessimism will be justified. I just don't like driving down the investment road looking in the rear view mirror for such things -
I am too likely to hit a tree.

I respectfully suggest that, just as bulls get too optimistic for their own good at the end of major advances, you are sounding too dogmatic for the declines I mentioned above. As we approach the bottom
in a bear market we should get less certain that we are right rather than more certain.

As a simple example, I would probably have to do a good deal of due diligence if asked by a long term investor whether TXN should be sold at today's closing price (down 42% from the high).

Good luck.
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