Yet you have expressed that you thought Apple was worth only $200/share. Your words don't add up. I believe I was a willing buyer a few months ago ~$300s. Because of developments since then (especially the good Q1 iPhone sales, but also what I perceive as increasing pressure for them to become more open, including to partnerships), I'd pay a bit more now... maybe $400 or so. By the end of the year, maybe I'd buy at $700, or maybe I'd stop at $250... all depends what happens until then.
You should realize buying a put is a short position.
Buying a put option is not shorting the stock. It represents a bearish position, i.e., one that is profitable only if the stock declines in value. It's also a limited-duration position with an expiration. Borrowing and selling AAPL and planning to buy it back later is shorting, and that's not what I've done. I've banked on various price movements when I've spotted what I believe are discrepancies in average perception and data I have access to.
If you bought at the highs, never before and never after, you would be down. Correct; that was my point. And the same would apply at any price above the current one (dividends not included). Furthermore, I could have instead used that money to buy the broader market, which by many objective measures, would have been less risky than buying a single stock (being AAPL) alone.
If you knew what you were buying, you would have bought before and after. And, even if your first purchase were at the all time high, the worst possible time to buy, you would still be up today, if you followed up presumed conviction with a buy at that level with subsequent buys. We've been through this. You're presuming the ability to market time. By the same token, you could have made money in many other equities that haven't moved much in two years if you timed additional bets correctly. |
