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Barak...you nraise some interesting points on silicon vs GaAs ...thanks...I'll try to get some more input from a friend at TXN in process devi\elopment technology although I', not sure he can say anything publicly. On a less technical note, someone mentioned that although it can be agreed that in the short run and the long run TQNT has (and has had) problems, one might hope fro improvement in earnings in the medium range. If TQNT fans (I was a former fan) will recall, last April when I first bought stock, TQNT had a 100% backlog for fou months at 24 hour shifts, was completing a plant that would double to triple capacity (with its huge capital outlay and potential drag on profits if it wasnt used) Qualcomm, its "Stragetic"partner had just won its suit against Motorola which meant it could start ramping up production of its touted Q phones (presumably using TQNT parts), management was dismissing the stockholder suit as fluff, the company was earning $.21 cents a quarter and analysts (and some within the company) were projecting earnings of $.40-$.45 a quarter within two quarters. At the time the stock sold for $24-$32 in an optomistic overall semiconcuctor market, with a foreward PE of 16-25 based on its expected growth. What is the case now? The stocks earnings have fallen to the low teens for two quarters, the promises made by company officials of "future stragetic parterniships" (without details)have been dashed, one can reasonably expect the huge Asian mobile phone market with its capital intensive base, especially in Korea, to be disasterously impacted, and the US market is showing serious signs of overcapacity and a glut of phones with its corresponding drop in earnings and orders. If TQNTs earnings COULD be sustained against this backdrop, they would be in the 40-50 PE range (with the stocks present price of around 18.75, And this for a company with DECLINING earnings in an increasingly pessimistic semi market. Triquint is indeed a thin reed to hold on to as I mentioned over a week ago. |
