Subject: Re: My thoughts
Date: Sat, Dec 13, 1997 10:43 EST
From: Skipard
Message-id: <19971213154300.KAA26100@ladder02.news.aol.com>
I am just as frustrated as everyone on this board. I do have an opinion, and I will not go over all of the DD that has been previously posted, but I do talk to the large buyers, and they are universal in their opinion on the whole Y2K group.
Assume, I am a large money manager who is paid on performance. I go where the action is. Techs, drillers, telecom,drugs, etc. This group has been under a cloud for whatever reason. I dont care what the reason is, I am paid to perform. Very simple.
Now, what if the group starts to perform. It is a very small industry, compared to others. Some pure plays, some special plays, etc..When they raid the whorehouse, they take the piano player with them. The reverse is also true. As new contracts come, and the group is highlighted then the filter down approach will bring attention to TPRO. It will happen in a hurry, when, who the hell knows.
I own a boatload of this stock, but I am honest with myself. To thine own self be true. I am dissapointed with its action, but I think of where I would have been, and this all of a sudden looks like Fort Knox, but I didnt buy it for relative performance, I bot it to make a pot full of money.
As the New year begins, what areas look attractive?? I sure don't know, but a lot have craters, and stocks getting cut in half or worse. If I am running big money, which I am, I dont go where there has been disaster, I try to find something that can play in the current environement. A trite cliche' time is our friend. But it is true.
SO here is my game plan. My cost on TPRO is around here on a VERY large position, bigger than the PP. They are sitting on some very large pieces of business that are very pregnant. Let me give you a hypothetical situation. I am guy or guys responsible for Y2K compliance at my firm, a Fortune 100 company , for the sake of argument. I have 10-20-30-100 plant sites. Along comes TPRO. Ever hear of them prior to June in the Y2K arena? I have a
problem, I select TPRO for a beta test at one or two of my plants. I have to be damn sure it works, I havent got much time left. Am I going to put my fanny on the line for multiple sites, until I am sure they can perform. I don't think so.
Now the test works at one or two sites. Now TPRO is in line for multiple site orders. These are the big bucks. Remember the CD has been out there very short time. It is my "hunch" that as of this date, these tests are going very well. If that is the case, when the news comes it is going to be significant. Now we can put some numbers to it.
My best guess is by the end of January we will see all hell break loose on orders for TPRO. If that is not the case, then I have to rethink my holding very seriously. But I get paid for making big bets, and having them work. In my DD process, when I find the first "glitch","excuse","significant delay", I learned a long time ago, when the bet changes, sell.
If I am betting big bucks on Green Bay and Favre is hurt, I change the bet or lay it off. My point is that I do keep very up to date on TPRO, and the bet has not changed, and if it does, I am history. If we are having this little chat 6 weeks from now, and I am making excuses, then I should be shot.
I have seen some serious players try and step to the plate on the dip to $5 1/2 last week. These people really do their homework, and they are trying to fine tune their entry level. They usually are a little early, but not real early. All in all, I feel we have to give them a little more time to start to show the kind of news, orders, that we are all here for. The rest is all cannon fodder,TA,MM's,PP,NMS,etc........................ |
