Mike and all, this thread has attracted a lot of independent thinkers who are nothing but people who exercise common sense and a little bit of caution. However, we are in a thin minority in this world. A vast majority of the janata bought the new-era nonsense by the Wall-Street gurus and analysts. Perhaps the analsts' 7 figure compensations in the recent years will see them through a brutal bear unaffected, even if they were to lose jobs. Now a lot of investors are doubting the honesty and integrity of the analysts. Whatever happened to their common sense earlier. Herd mentality is something they can't shrug-off. And they are using the same to blame the analysts.
Mike Burke, Joe, Dave Dillon, I and a few others have been telling people about the potential dangers ahead of the semi-equipment companies since the time Applied started to sky-rocket in May/June. While the others are very knowledgeable about semiconductors, I am not. Most of my rationale was based on common sense.
If a few of my customers who are competing with each other are losing money on the things they sell, I can't expect to keep on selling more gadgets to them regardless of their merits. Period.
Now things are in retrospect.
msnbc.com
AMAT's LRCXs and otehrs have already taken a big hair cut. I think there is more to follow. Unlike the last cycle, now a couple of economies contributing to the DRAm glut are in shambles.
BTW, a french-curve based extrapolation of earnings is what we see form the Wall Street. After all, they don't teach Common Sense 101 at Harvard or MIT.
I can't believe that I am saying this, but I give a lot of credit for Tom Kurlak for making a lot of money for is clients and letting them out at a great time - atleast with the chip companies - MU, Intel, TXN!
-Mohan |
