Brent, I do not agree with your opinion "it appears they (Presstek) are about to hit a stumbling block, IMO they will get pummeled for it."
There is enough in the Presstek pipeline to surpass the minimal impact to revenue that fewer Heidelberg kit sales may bring in the first quarter. The opinion of the bears is that Presstek will note a significant decrease. Being that Presstek met with Heidelberg in November, if a significant decrease was expected, Presstek would have had no choice but to have already released that information as it would have been material and required. Also, my research into current QMDI demand and production does not indicate slowdown.
Contrary to the bears position, the relationship btw. Presstek and Heidelberg is quite important....to Heidelberg! Start paying attention to the Heidelberg advertising in nearly all the trade journals.....it's all QMDI! Which press did they feature prominently at the trade shows.....QMDI! Which press highlights printers advertising on their web sites.....QMDI. This press does not exist without Presstek technology. The QMDI will continue to amass many more sales over the years.
You state you find it hard to invest in a company that is down 25% for the year and 45% off of it's high.....Brent, have you ever heard of buying low...selling high. This is the prime time to research a top 100 growth company. I have asked many questions and E-mailed many people and sources connected to this industry that are knowledgeable of the market, or are using or may have the potential of using Presstek's technology. From those contacts, I have formed my opinion of the future direction of this company. It is solid and continuing to lead with it's technology.
Presently, I am quite curious as to the nature of the talks between Presstek and Heidelberg regarding other imaging or direct to press options, as indicated in the prior Presstek press release.
I also strongly disagree with your statement: "I say there is no way for Presstek to make up the lost revenue by Q1 98 and both of you do."
What makes you believe that Presstek is not diligently pursuing large contracts with other companies and firms? Why is it beyond your comprehension to think Presstek management is not capable of negotiating other huge blockbuster deals, just as important to their future growth as the Heidelberg agreement provided? With the lock Presstek has on the technology and complete turn around in direction for the industry, Presstek appears ready and waiting with open arms. I and many others expect these types of agreements may soon become common for this company and the resulting stock price will soar due to the huge increase in revenue.
As I have stated previously, this stocks past historic trading patterns have moved their stock pricing up or down in dramatic fashion.
Decisions by traders and investors to buy or sell have been based on this companies future potential earnings, as well as any current developments with present contracts. It should be fair to state that based on every past trading pattern for this company, no one can dispute that Presstek stock will again move substantially again in the future. It's the direction of the move we disagree on. I believe all of us will agree that any new "significant developments" or "major agreements" that may be announced from Presstek in upcoming months will create havoc in this stock, again sending it skyrocketing in price.
The recent decrease in stock price, IMO, is due to the lack of any recent substantive news release showing the company is "on-track" in continuing their prior growth pattern and fulfilling their business plan. I too, am most puzzled that they have not done so recently, (especially after the Heidelberg release), as I find the name Presstek is very prevalent in conversations with nearly all print manufacturers, suppliers and other people conducting research. With all the positive feedback I hear, it appears Presstek is on top of the world, gaining name recognition, credibility and prominence.
I am amazed that the short position still believes Presstek was (is) a "two-year wonder" whose place as a major player with their technology in this industry was nothing but an orchestrated plot and plain manipulated hype. The bears state that "this company does not stand a snowballs chance in August of producing enough revenue to justify even current stock pricing" some even believe the company will not be around a year from now....let alone increase it's revenue and stock price anywhere near the significant heights it once obtained. They believe that presently, if it were not for Heidelberg, Presstek would never survive as a company.
The bulls that support this stock and are buying shares at these prices, recognize that Presstek is a most certain intricle part of the future change and recent developments in the industry. With the many patents they control in direct imaging and plate technology,
Presstek's products will be required to be used in a big way, as this industry is in the process of conversion to thermal solutions and on press imaging.
The bears have not a clue regarding the place of prominence and control that Presstek has established for itself in this industry. This is one primary reason the stock currently has over 5 million shares shorted and is being attacked daily by the shorts, both in trading pattern and on the Internet.
The present short numbers are a substantial percentage of available outstanding shares....All required to be covered at some point in the future. It is this continued lack of belief by the bears, lack of any understanding of Presstek's contributions and the vast earning potential this company has in marketing their technology, that will cause the downfall of many traders that continue to short the stock.
They will eventually realize they made a fatal error in judgment and will stampede to reverse their earlier blunder. Please be aware though, for every share that has been sold during this latest correction in the stock......there has been a buyer who recognized the value of ownership and scooped up a few thousand more shares. Now....who could these buyers be? How many more Nannys are out there?
Neil
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