Skipard, et al:,
I have decided to come out of the closet...although I am not sure why. I have lurked on this thread for 6 months, have read at least every title of every post (God knows there is way too much B.S to actually read every post), have accumulated over 60K+ shares of TPRO, and have 20+ years senior level experience in high tech service oriented companys. I currently run a private hedge fund and thought I would bore you with MHO's on TPRO.
First, the negative:
I don't believe this has been addressed...but after 7000+ posts I could certainly be wrong. TPRO is a "service" business which is usually defined by 50% or more of revenues derived from billable time. Historically Wall Street has hated the service business. With only a few exceptions, a service business will not get the same P/E multiples as a product oriented business. If you want to sell a service business you will only get 1-2 times sales unless/until it reaches the 100MM+ revenue catagory. I could never understand why the Street wouldn't value a high margin people intensive business, but it clearly likes the faceless product more. Even large contract announcements will not affect the price of a service business as it will a product business. A product business only has to step up production on new business....a service company has to re-organise people resources....a much more complicated problem.
Next, the positive:
What I like most about the service business and TPRO in particular is that, if you apply the right model and stick with it, you have and maintain high margins which goes straight to the bottom line. TPRO has done this like a champ. When you do the DD it stares you in the face. The margins were strong before the potential Y2K business. I won't go into the strong mgmt and strategies as that has been covered well here. I look at Y2K business to vault revenues into a catagory that the street will notice.....we're not there yet.
I make these comments because IMHO this stock is different than many of those compared to on this thread. Margins and revenue are the keys to this game. When I see them decrease, I am out of here. I have to laugh at those who bombard this thread with "mumbo jumbo" about bad TA signs, MM manipulation, and stock break down when we're off 1/2 a point....it simply doesn't apply here. I too use TA to compliment my fundamental DD on other positions but not with TPRO
Skip, although I think you are starting to get too sensitive to some of the garbage postings here, I agree with your analysys. I don't believe, however, large contracts announcements or other corporate news will sustain any move in this stock. Watch the numbers closely, they never lie!
Well....back to lurking
Gegs |
