>>>So, then, how does one read block trades?<<<
Gary, do any of these trades come after downticks? IE, Bid ask at 27 3/16 x 1/4, downtick to 27 1/8 x 3/16, then the 10k shows up at 3/16 it looks as if it crossed on the ask, when it was actually an arranged sale at the previous bid, and was the transaction that caused the downtick. What happened was the mm shorted the 10k at 1/4 then buys it from the seller at 3/16. Also, to confuse the situation further is Instinet. The transaction could have crossed at the ask and actually not have involved an mm. In that case the block is both a sale and a buy. Its really impossible to tell just from looking at the bid/ask at the time of the transaction.
Another thing is I don't see the average retail investor throwing in the towel on the merger yet. Who knows, I could be wrong, but the LU/ASND deal reminds me of the IBM/NOVL rumor that surfaces periodically. NOVL's been a great stock to play this year, as it oscillates between 7 1/2 and 10, depending on the state of that rumor.
My best advice is to forget the LU thing, and evaluate the company on its merits as a stand alone entity. My impression is that it's a little overpriced here. If one buys at this price because he thinks ASND is a good value at these levels then any takeover at a higher price would just be gravy. But it the gravy shouldn't be a reason to buy, unless one is "in the know".
The Cisco decline today was caused by cautionary wording in their 10q which says something to the effect that CSCO believes that networking growth will suffer due to companies diverting resourses to the Y2K problem.
Good luck to all in this one. I think the best way to play this is long or short, depending on the market, and to go home in cash, but that's me.
Barb |
