<<When I called three weeks ago when the stock started to slide, the IR person said "unsure.">>
SLN said:
>IR stated that through Nov., the company had not experienced "an appreciable
effect" one way or the other regarding SEA. She then stated that the CFO had provided guidance
earlier in Nov. to one analyst that there was a "slight" downturn on B-to-B in Nov as compared to Oct
when it was "strong." She further stated that it was "too early" to tell for Dec.
This is similar answer I got, except the Nov. downtrend. I'm worried about this downtrend in BTB. How about Dec.? I'm afraid it could be below 1.0. There's no certainty in the answer you got.
BTW, did you try to get the exact BTB # for Nov.? Above 1.0? Your answer would be appreciated.
At the same time, I see concrete evidences that INTC and AMD are slashing price (AMD) and closing fabs(INTC) for flash. Hmm, worrisome?
The reason I expect it to drop to 10-15 range is simple. When a commodity memory maker stock drop, the compressed PE is ussually @ 6-8 range. The avarage Q earning for ATML now is 0.3 (count the last 2Q and the estimate for the coming Q). The projection for forward E/yr is 1.2-1.3, you'll come up with the number of 7-11/sh.
However, I think 15 would be a good enough entry point for me if it's reached.
But, if the earning estimate is met or there're any rosy preannouncement, I'll jump right onto the momentum wagon for this stock.
Right now, I would suggest the investors on this thread to keep pounding the same question about B-to-B to the company. The earlier we got the answer, the better decision we can make on this stock, and the more maney we can make or less money we can lose.
Regards,
Frank |
