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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL)
JBL 213.96+1.4%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: patroller who wrote (2079)12/13/1997 3:55:00 PM
From: solderman.com  Read Replies (3) of 6317
 
Patroller,

The market is saying something about the valuation of ECM stocks and right now that's all that matters. The enthusiasm that was there recently is gone. The multiples are retreating to historical norms in the group. Overcapacity MAY be an issue. I know you are a bull on JBIL and FLEXF and SLR, but sometimes it's better to be rich than right. No disrespect intended, but you have been on the wrong side of the trendt for a while (and a lot of points in the stocks you like). The market is not always rational, but ignoring the market's message and direction is also a mistake IMHO. Why Ko Nishimura thinks he has no competition is beyond me. I agree the growth the industry is undergoing is huge- growth in investment in new plants, equipment, etc. All this costs. Maybe there are new contracts in place to justify the new capacity, but they can all be cancelled at any time. I have read that ECMs do anywhere from 10-15% of all electronic assemblies now. What do you think the ceiling is on this? I know it's not 100%. BTW, was Ko talking about ECM's eventually having 100% of the assembly market? Was he saying that ECMs would eventually be 10 times larger in revenue(but still only have 10-15% of the assembly market)? Did he give a time frame? Was he talking about SLR only or the whole ECM industry?

My stance is that long term this is a great place to have some money, but the correction may not be done with, and it could be a fair while before we retest old highs. JMHO.
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