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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks

NN 17.07

+0.2%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Andrew who wrote (2578)	12/13/1997 4:29:00 PM
From: nick cash	Read Replies (1) of 18016

andrew, i agree w/your big picture atm comments as you know if you've read my posts over the past 18 months. your take on ub is off imo. nn #$%^ed up-it's that simple. i didn't like it then and like it less now. they were a dying player in the field and had been reduced to primarily reselling csco gear. reselling csco gear didn't require the greatest of sales forces as csco dominated/dominates the arena ub sold to. so, nn paid $100mm for a so-so sales force that sold to a customer base of firmly entrenched csco clients. nn's aspiration that these same sales people were going to go from selling easy to sell csco gear to walking in the same door and saying "hey, forget about csco, we've got nn's vivid line now-buy it. yes, nn is mainly known for wan products but scrap csco and buy the unknown nn stuff" was naive. terry m's head gets a bit big at times-this is one example. the customers have stayed w/csco. nn's lan division (vivid/ub) has never turned a profit and is a drain of resources and earnings of course. at this point i don't know what the answer is. tough to scrap the division and rely on a partnership w/coms but that is one alternative that is being considered. another is to continue to bite the bullet and hope that they can make inroads in the lan-problem is that nn has no name in the lan and it's a tough sell that has failed thus far.nn wants an end to end solution but at what price? other current concerns are real. mcic going to wcom w/bt backing out of concert was the worst possible outcome for nn. nn has NO relationship w/wcom while asnd's relationship w/wcom is thick as thieves due to asnd's long time relationship w/uunet. withthe new cascade switch w/frame relay there is a real potential that nn's big deal with mcic is in jeopardy.if something does happen here it would give the cscc switch a lot of credibility w/other telco's. the 36170 has been without competition since it came out-no more. if nn starts to lose mkt share in the wan atm mkt it would be very telling as nn has very strong relationships there. anyway, THESE are the concerns that are weighing on the stock along w/the beating the techs are taking in general. nn has come out twice now stating that they don't see the asian turmoil affecting them that much-this is NOT the reason nn is going down. the quick move from 42 to 35 was technical as i said before it happened. 42 was critical support, when it broke it it fell to the next support level of 35-36. if nn doen't recover back above 35 mon or tues we are heading for 28. look at the chart, this is pretty rudimentary ta. all imo only....nick

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