That said, you don't get to be far and away the most successful corporation of the 21st century so far without doing a hell of a lot more things right than wrong, and more importantly having the things done right prove far more important than the things done wrong. Don't forget that they're also, at least in my opinion, one of the most brilliant marketing companies. My biggest failure in evaluating them over the past year or so was my assumption that their users would start trying alternative products more readily. Despite superb alternatives being available, Apple users largely aren't trying them, and that speaks to Apple's marketing brilliance. The percentage of Apple users who are blissfully happy with what they have is mind-blowing, and whether or not they'd be more happy trying something has been largely irrelevant, as they simply aren't inclined to look around. As long as Apple can keep that up, they'll at least protect their base.
It's definitely a difficult time to be an Apple critic. Not many people have the skills to admit to past negative sentiments that were wrong, and come up with a way to carefully explain why this time is different. Great point about how hard it is for some to admit they're wrong. Key to how hard it is to admit is how much there is to admit, and that in turn depends upon *when* someone became critical/bearish on Apple. Clearly, any bear who has touted their demise for half a decade or more must sleep in a tear-stained bed. The long-term chart looks like one side of Mt. Everest! Similarly, someone who has been bearish since earlier this year can't be thrilled either, as Apple has smartly outpaced the broader market. For someone like me who became bearish while Apple was in the 600-700 (85-100) range, it's not so bad, especially if invested elsewhere during the same period as the market roared higher. I know where I've been wrong (see my paragraph above), and understanding such failures is critical to evaluating where to go from here.
So let's get onto the business of evaluating the pros and cons of what Apple is doing and where AAPL goes from here. That's what makes this board so useful! |
