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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (252797)6/15/2014 11:33:40 AM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) of 540622
 
From what I've read recently, there is a strong likelihood that Syria will divide between north and south (north as sunni, south as alawite/shia); Iraq is likely to be partitioned into a Kurdish upper north, a Sunni north and west, and a Shia south and east; and the two Sunni portions try to unite into one country.

Moreover the ISIS might not have a strong hold on the the Sunni portions once and if the fighting settles down. Too many other well armed, well trained Sunni factions in the coalition.

Whether Iran tries to unite with a Shia south is hard to say. Iranians pride themselves on being Persians. But then there are the southern oil reserves.

Other matter to watch is whether Saudi Arabia tries to play a role.

I agree with you about the Kurds. Hard to say about Lebanon, however.
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