Hi Gregor,
Don't know what to say about those tech stocks. I've been telling all my friends to go to cash/bonds for months now , risk/reward is to great. But I have no crystal ball. You look at EFI with several years worth of gains wiped out in one day.
We could be going thru a cycle low before the next uptrend. We won't really now if a bear market has begun until the Dow has taken out the October lows.
IMO the SEA currency problems and especially Korea will have enough impact on Worldwide economies to depress earnings. Stock markets go up based on earnings, not just money flow.
Korean-Americans in my area that export to Korea are talking bankruptcy and nil business. Korean tourism businesses have seen wholesale cancellations. There is also a wave of protectionism going on for Koreans to buy Korean (and help their economy recover) which will hurt all exporters to Korea. I'm sure some of the same sentiment exists in some of the other Tigers.
We are sitting on a big asset bubble, with historically inflated price earnings ratios based on extremely optimistic goldilocks outlook. Remember it was a full year ago that Greenspan gave his irrational exhuberance speech. The last time a Fed Governor uttered such words was in the winter of 1929 and his words were "irrational speculation"
Asset bubbles can go on a long time before bursting. Just as no one knows the day or time that our Lord will return, no one knows the day or time the bubble will burst.
However, the Bible is richly prophetic and while God may not want to indicate the hour or the time, I think he wants to give us enough clues so that we will be in the ball park. I've understood that there are 465 prophetic statements about the birth, life, death and ressurection of Jesus Christ in the Old Testament that were fullfilled and that the possibility of only 8 being fulfilled is something like 1 in 1,000,000,000,000 (can't remember the exact # but you get the idea). Praise God for his undeniable word. I feel so foolish for ignoring and being ignorant of it for so long.
Just as God has given us rich and undeniable clues, I think Alan Greenspan, the most influencial minister of finance in the world has given clues, which up until now have largely also been ignored.
Merry Christmas Gregor and agreed, let's go tell it on the mountain so people can realize what this season is all about.
God Bless,
Bob |
