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Biotech / Medical : CTEC: Cholestech any other investors?
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To: John Kratus who wrote (352)12/13/1997 5:52:00 PM
From: mike boyajian  Read Replies (2) of 710
 
John,

The pharmacy sales are the key to success and the only reason that the stock made it to $15. Exponential growth is only possible through rapidly increasing the installed base of LDX machines. The FY 99 estimate of $.34 to $.60 is predicated on having an installed base of some 15,000 machines. They currently have approximately 7600 at end of last quarter. The analyst from Principal Financial based his projections on this 15K number of machines.

Also, I had understood that the 1000 machines sold to Parke-Davis were booked in last QTR's revenue thus explaining why the net income was 100% over the analysts estimates ($.04 vs $.02). Sales of cassettes to support these machines of course will be booked as they are sent to the user.

If the pharmacy sales are not happening now I think this next QTR will be $.04 (if we are lucky). Hopefully it will be higher but I doubt it without the new pharmacy market.

Of course Lola laughed when you asked her about the World Health Organization deal. Did you expect her to pass along insider information if this deal is in the works?

Maybe Alexa can fill in some blanks for us on future markets.

If this company is to be successful long term that will:

1. Have to increase the installed base of machines substantially and

2. Continue to develop and receive approval for use of additional test cassettes.

Mike
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