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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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evestor
To: Dennis Roth who wrote (184452)6/17/2014 9:14:45 AM
From: Dennis Roth1 Recommendation   of 206152
 
Iraq and the KRI
De-constructing headlines
17 June 2014, 7 pages, 10 figures sendspace.com

Implication to Iraqi production: Iraq's giant fields are in the south, and
heavily defended by better organised (mostly Shia) Iraqi army. That said, the
investment climate in Iraq had already been deteriorating with the current
crisis likely adding to government paralysis that could further impact the
development of southern fields. According to Iraq Oil Report, BP and XOM
have already started to withdraw some staff from the south. Prospects for
the northern route (via the ITP pipeline) to re-open look more elusive, except
for the route via the KRI (a stable region) if differences can be settled.

The crisis may be providing an impetus towards a resolution between
Baghdad and the KRG – Baghdad's revenue needs plus Peshmerga's
support to defeat the rebels in Mosul, just like in 2005. The Oil Minister
already stated that 'there is a better chance of an agreement between the
central government and the KRG to solve their oil dispute due to the
situation in Mosul'. There is potential for ~400kbd of exports from the KRI by
early 2015, in our view. It is clearly important for the KRI to remain insulated
from violence and instability; a region that has remained a very stable region
even during the US invasion of Iraq and the subsequent turmoil.
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