BG Group plc (BG.L), Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO), Enerplus Corporation (ERF.TO),
Gazprom (GAZP.MM), Santos (STO.AX / STO AU), Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP),
Quantifying the MLP Impact on DOW & LYB
BG Group plc (BG.L)
Weak spots in BG's defence line
Downgrade to U/P.
19 June 2014 sendspace.com
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO)
Investor Day: Highlights
18 June 2014 sendspace.com
Enerplus Corporation (ERF.TO)
Adding Inventory in North Dakota; Increasing TP to C$29
18 June 2014 sendspace.com
Gazprom (GAZP.MM)
Alert: Gazprom cuts gas flows to Ukraine, goes to court for back payments
17 June 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
‘After years of talks, the Ukrainian gas crisis may have come to a head’, nods
Russia Integrated Oils analyst Ronald Paul Smith, ‘for Gazprom cuts gas flows to
Ukraine and moves the country to prepayment terms... given the importance of
Ukraine for Gazprom, both as a transit route for its European exports and as a
lucrative client in its own right, the uncertainty endangered by this dispute over
prices and volumes has provided a significant risk overhang for Gazprom’s
stock... while things may get worse before the improve, it is better for all sides
to have brought this issue to a head now – in low-demand summer when
European storage is unusually full following a warm winter – rather than later in the
year when Europe’s supply/demand balance would be less able to deal with a
potential disruption of flows via Ukraine, should things escalate further’.
Santos (STO.AX / STO AU)
Sacre Bleu
Au revoir Bonaparte:
19 June 2014 sendspace.com
Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP)
Dropdown Story With Downside Protection: Initiating With A Buy
17 June 2014 ¦ 28 pages ir.citi.com
We are initiating coverage on Summit Midstream Partners LP with a Buy (1)
rating and target price of $54.50/unit, as we believe the partnership should
provide investors an attractive total return based on an implied yield of 4.25%
and our expectation of ~13% price appreciation over the next 12 months. We
believe SMLP provides limited risk on a strong growth profile over the next few
years as its general partner acquires, develops, and drops down assets to the
partnership. We believe the units trade at an attractive level when taking into
consideration its forward 12-month distribution growth rate of ~16%, growing
portfolio of dropdown assets at its general partner (GP), and cash flow stability
via 4.0 Tcf of minimum volume commitments (MVCs) through 2026.
Quantifying the MLP Impact on DOW & LYB
WLK Blazes The Trail; Will Others Follow?
18 June 2014 ¦ 16 pages ir.citi.com
With a +10% reaction in WLK’s stock after the company’s ethylene MLP
announcement, chemical companies are bringing the MLP discussion back to the
front burner. In this report, we attempt to: 1) Value LYB and DOW’s existing
ethylene crackers in an MLP structure using a fixed 10c/lb margin, similar to
WLK. We see potential value creation of $4.66/share for LYB (~5%) and
~$1.00/share for DOW (~2%). 2) We also evaluated the impact of placing new
assets at LYB (methanol) and DOW (ethylene, propane dehydrogenation) into an
MLP. The impact is much smaller for new assets, totaling $0.42/share for LYB
and $0.87/share for DOW. In both cases, we used comparable valuations of pure
play MLPs to compute the uplift for establishing an MLP vs. keeping the asset in
the C-corp. |
