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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 260.77+0.2%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13233)12/13/1997 7:29:00 PM
From: davesd  Read Replies (5) of 70976
 
Jacob....it looks like the technology boom of the past years is shifting into low gear...almost all the major areas of technology are experiencing a slowdown. Merced is just another chip like the PII...I see no reason why you think the Merced chip will create any new significant markets that will kick start the technology sector....and hence the semi industry. INTC is having enough problems trying to convience the world that they need the PII chip.

I heard from a source that Samsung has stopped recieving any new tools and that other Korean companies maybe doing the same. The currency issue and the country's instability has made it very diffcult for them to raise cash. I think this will bleed into the other countries in the region in 1998. The overcapacity is real and the demand for chips is slowing due to the slowdown in technology growth. 1998 is going to be as bad or worse than 1996....I expect to see AMAT in the teens in the next few months.

I think there is going to be very limited amout of $$$$ spent on 200mm .25u in 1998....I think that fabs will put off any new big purchases till 1999 or 2000 when 300mm tools are available. I see a very bleak picture for the industry in 1998 with a turnaround in 1999. In my opinion 1999 LEAPS over $30 will expire worthless.

dave
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