roni, risk is risk and we all have different horizons for our positions... I'm holding onto SDRL, thinking it will probably slip... but as long as they don't cut that dividend, I'm sticking with them, because even though I'm not that into share price/cap gains as a priority, I firmly believe SDRL comes out the other side of the boom/bust offshore OSX cycle stronger than any of their peers (just as I always felt -- and was right -- about my old employer who now is NOV -- though I no longer own them due to the relatively meager dividend situation there)... in my experience the companies that come out of the always inevitable down cycles as strong or stronger than they went in -- and stronger than their peers -- especially in offshore OSX... well, those are the winners long term and typically show strong share price performance on average over time... to me, SDRL is still in a slump as a stock and their best/boom time is 1-2 years out and that's when the big gains will come, IMO...
However, nothing is ever a slam dunk in offshore high stakes biz... I don't mind being paid 11-12% while I wait to see how it unfolds -- again, assuming they don't cut the divvy... and since my position is relatively old (let's face it the company isn't that old relative to their peers), I have the luxury of a significant cap gain cushion in addition to that yield. I don't expect the divvy to grow for at least 1-2 years, but that's ok, too, because at the current levels it doesn't have to in order to meet my goal for holding the position. |
