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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing
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To: zman69 who wrote (3680)6/23/2014 5:11:07 PM
From: POKERSAM  Read Replies (2) of 15903
 
You ask when do I go long? There is not a simple answer. I try to focus on wave threes and wave Cs. It also depends on the size of the degree as to how long I will hold long or short. Wave structure in a particular EW pattern is also a determining factor.
I guess the short answer is that I try to go long when the timing appears to be right.
When do you go long? I imagine your short answer would be the same as mine. I am sure neither of us go long when we think the timing is not right.
When trading is the issue one needs to play by certain rules. There are bull market rules and bear market rules. In a bull market such as the current cyclical bull market you must recognize that corrections are the exception and not the rule. Playing corrections must be seen as temporary and riskier than trading with the trend. When EWP calls for a larger degree correction and it is confirmed, a correction can be played with a little more confidence. It is still riskier than playing long and one should recognize that the odds greatly favor that the correction is temporary and the overall trend will continue.
When you trade with the trend and you are early the trend will rescue you. When you trade against the trend and your timing is off there is no help coming.
Just turn this upside down when in a bear market.
Bottom line is that a trader should always assume that a trend will continue till it does not.
Many Elliotticians have one count and it is the count moving with the overall trend. I have two counts. One moving with the overall trend that I call my Super Bullish Count and one pointing to the possible end of the overall LT trend that I call my Super Bearish Count. The Super Bearish count looks for another cyclical bear market before the 2000 secular bear market ends. But the top of the current cyclical bull is not yet.
Which super LT count I happen to favor has nothing to do with what I trade. It just so happens that they are in ST-IT lock step at the moment. This happens more often than you would think.
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