| | | This article might be worth taking a look at, I recommend it, ...
Today's activities in the miners might be suggesting a pull back to recent lower levels, as most all of them are closing near the lows of the day, ... and if we cant overtake, or at least retake recent highs, I would expect further weakness.
News and Geo-Events are wild cards of course.
Gold, Silver, Miners Accomplishing Major Triple Bottom
June 19th, 2014
Gary Christenson:
Let’s start with the conclusion. The charts are quite positive for gold, silver and their stocks. Crude oil remains in a two year uptrend and looks strong, particularly considering the political situation in the Middle-East. A spike higher in crude oil prices will hurt the S&P Index, consumer spending, and the economies and corporate profits in oil-importing nations. The S&P has been rallying for a very long time – perhaps too long.
Politics and Perspective
1) Central banks are monetizing debt – “printing money,” and global debt is already unimaginably large and growing exponentially. Consumer prices for food and energy are rising – rapidly in some cases. Few people in Japan, Europe or the United States are benefiting from the “money printing,” excessive debt and rising prices. Would central banks be “printing money” and would sovereign governments be borrowing and spending so aggressively if economic conditions were positive? Expect more QE, inflation in food and energy prices, and an eventual rush into gold and silver.
2) Consider Ukraine, Iraq, Iran, South China Sea, Syria, and more. These conflicts do not bode well for sub $100 oil, debt based economies, and countries that import oil in quantity – such as Japan, Europe, and the United States.
3) “Amateur hour” in foreign policy is not inspiring confidence.
4) June is, historically speaking, not a good month for gold prices, but this June is looking quite positive for gold. When gold does well in a “bad” month, it indicates particular strength. The Aden Sisters made this commentary on gold and silver.
MARKETS
Gold: The weekly chart shows a “head-and-shoulders” bottom with a buy signal from the TDI Indicator. Prices are on the verge of breaking out of a 20 month downtrend and should rise above short-term resistance around $1300 to fill the gaps around $1,330 and $1,500.
Gold price chart show major bottom
Silver: The weekly chart shows a breakout from a 20 month downtrend. Note the buy signal from the TDI Indicator. Look for prices to break resistance at $22, to fill the gap above $26.30, and then to move much higher.
Silver price chart show major bottom
XAU Gold Stock Index:
The weekly chart shows a breakout from a 20 month downtrend and a buy signal from the TDI Indicator. Resistance is around 105 and could easily be broken on the way back to the September 2012 high around 200.
XAU price chart show major bottom
SIL Silver Miners ETF:
Same as the XAU – breakout and buy signal.
SIL price chart show major bottom
GDX Gold stocks ETF:
Same as the XAU – breakout and buy signal.
This is important since the gold stocks usually breakout ahead of gold. Substantial rallies in gold and the GDX are likely.
GDX price chart show major bottom
GDXJ Junior Gold stocks ETF:
Same as XAU – breakout and buy signal. When the GDXJ rallies it can move up substantially and quickly.
GDXJ price chart show major bottom
S&P 500 Index: This index has been ramped higher by Fed created QE dollars that benefited the financials elite and a few others. This last week, like many before, might have been a reversal. If it really is “curtains” for this rally, look out below as there is a long way to fall.
S&P 500
We live in uncertain times that are devolving into geopolitical chaos, revolution and rebellion, questionable foreign policy decisions, unimaginable global debt and derivatives risk, and massive central bank “money printing.” Would you rather entrust your savings to a bank paying practically no interest - or - to gold? Do you trust the financial industry and politicians more than you trust gold? Central banks can print currencies, banks can “bail-in” your savings, stock markets can crash, governments can default on bonds, but nobody can print gold, silver or crude oil. |
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