Hi Salah,
>> Beyond their waffling on the 45 days channel inventory, and Jim McCormmick's concern about high educational sales of 37M (not concern of mine compared with 30M-32M sales in Q2-97 and Q3-97), I don't know where the numbers were fudged. Would you, or Joe, enlighten me?. <<
The numbers are (and remain unaudited). They didn't have to for Q4. E&Y are their auditors. You can be very creative when reflecting booking of sales. Schmidt "had to have" a "black Q".
That's all I'll say about it.
>> Regardless of the stock price, I will not buy this stock before I see significant buying by insiders, especially Bradford, this guy has been selling all along and he was right, when he buys with other insiders, this might be a good buy signal. Otherwise, if the big guys aren't willing to put their money where their mouth is, I'm not in the mood to get burned again. <<
100% agreement. And one of *my* primary reasons for watching this very closely now. Along with the "perception" in the industry issues. You also make a very strong case IMO that even with increased sales due to MOAB it won't be enough. I'm glad at least you and I agree on the fact that they needed to downsize even further (if they wanted to take the tact of going it on their own, which they obviously do now).
*** Off Topic ***
>> . If someone has some good reasons to buy ORCL other than the stock dropped 9-10 points in one day, I like to hear them. <<
1. Larry Ellison is the CEO
2. Ray Lane is the President
3. They have a better PR and Marketing department than Novell?
<GG>
No, really, I agree, it's a risky play (I know, I took it - I'm in for 1000 at 23 1/8 with another GTC OTB for 500 more at 20 1/4 or better).
The next 3 months IMO will shake out ORCL. Here's some stuff (whether it "flys" remains to be seen):
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
FRONT END: Oracle Openworld India 1997
Thin Clients, Fat Business
For developers, it was time to catch up with the latest technologies; and
for users, the conference/exhibition showcased solutions on Oracle
platform.
By D. Srilatha
In the most computer-savvy country,
United States, 70 percent of homes do
not have a computer; more than 90
percent of Asian homes are in the same
boat. Derek Williams, senior vice
president, Oracle Asia Pacific Division,
speaking at Oracle OpenWorld India,
held in New Delhi last month, argued for a
model of computing that uses low-cost computing devices connected to a
network, when he cited a study that concluded that, if the total population of
the world was downsized to 100, not a single individual would own a
computer.
The world's leading database vendor's information technology and business
solutions show reached Indian shores this year, as a recognition of the sizable
developer-user support available in this part of the world. For developers, it
was time to catch up with the latest Oracle offerings--both database and
development tools. For users, the conference/exhibition provided a glimpse
into products and solutions available on the Oracle platform.
Keynotes, seminars, an exhibition and a camproom (a forum for demonstrating
Oracle technologies) were the backdrop against which the hosts, their partners,
exhibitors and delegates interacted. Nearly 1,000 delegates attended the
convention, and 30 companies exhibited their products and services.
According to T. Srinivasan, director, Oracle India, the aim of the show was "to
spread awareness amongst the users" as regards Oracle technology. Jnan
Dash, vice president, advanced technology and strategy, Oracle, speaking at
the inaugural keynote, focussed this aim further: "Enabling the information age
through networked computing."
Fat Client, Thin Client
The company's CEO, Larry Ellison's concept of
the Network Computer (NC) was threaded into
the message delivered by various speakers.
Positioned against the "fat client" PCs running
Microsoft Windows operating system, "where
total cost of ownership ranges from $3,000 to
$10,000 per year", the NC is a sub-$500 network-centric computer. Instead
of depending on a specific type of hardware, CPU or operating system, it
provides an open client model that focuses on Internet standards and Java.
Oracle views network computing, said Dash, as a "culmination of mainframe
computing, Internet technology and client/server architecture." Oracle's
flagship, Oracle 8 RDBMS, the NC and supporting Network Computing
Architecture (NCA) are poised to enable network computing.
Demonstrations of the NC (a model by Funai of Japan), both at the talks and
at the exhibition, attracted the delegates and visitors attention. "At last, and at
least, there is a choice now," said Ravi Chari, vice president of network
solutions provider Zenith Infotech Ltd. Williams went further beyond just
talking of the NC to propose a national-level think tank on network computing,
to be set up with the participation of government, industry and academia.
Windows Still Attracts
The vision of network computing seemed to encompass Windows NT too.
Oracle's support for the Windows NT platform was highlighted, not only by
Oracle itself, but also by Digital Equipment India Ltd. (DEIL). Bobby
Choonawala, president, Digital Equipment Asia Pacific Pvt. Ltd., stressed
upon the Oracle-Digital partnership on Windows NT, solutions for which
include Oracle 8, data marts (comprising Oracle Server, Windows NT on
AlphaServer 4000) and clustering solutions on the NT platform.
Network computing forming the cornerstone of its business strategy, Oracle
went on to illustrate how the NC and the NCA could benefit businesses, either
in the emerging area of electronic commerce or in the traditional industry
segments of finance, consumer product goods, financial services and
telecommunications.
Comprising a data server (Oracle 8), application server (Oracle Web Server,
for instance) and a client (the NC), the NCA, according to Peter Relan, vice
president, Oracle, "enables businesses to change, provides operational
excellence and extends business reach."
Relan stressed on the opportunity for India of going directly to the NC model.
Examples of countries that have taken up electronic commerce projects in a big
way served to illustrate the possibilities. They include Malaysia's Multimedia
Super Corridor, which will handle electronic healthcare and education, and the
Philippines CyberCity which will offer facilities for commerce and
entertainment.
Showcasing the Partnerware
Oracle OpenWorld showed signs of liveliness even at the small exhibition
where 30 of Oracle's Alliance partners displayed their products and services.
The participants included Digital Equipment India Ltd., Tata IBM Ltd.,
Compaq Computer Corp., Tata Consultancy Services, NCR, Infosys
Technologies, Silicon Graphics, BMC Software, etc. All displayed products
that supported/used Oracle technology. Some exhibitors also used this venue
to preview some of their soon-to-be-launched products. What caught the eye
at the entrance to the exhibition was an information system, that through a
touch-screen interface, provided information about the day-to-day activities of
the conference. It was developed by Connexions Technologies India Pvt. Ltd.,
a Delhi-based software consultancy firm.
The most crowded part was, however, the Oracle pavilion where NCs were
being demonstrated. Using an NC card, the NC unit could be activated to
allow you to use an application (word-processor), look up the calendar for
personal appointment, surf the Web or even download Java applets. The NC
models will be available in the country in the first quarter of 1998, Srinivasan
informed.
Digital highlighted the availability of its clustering technology on the
AlphaServer 1000A rackmount system with Oracle 8 database. According to
DEIL officials, such clusters have been deployed at the National Stock
Exchange and Maruti Udyog Ltd. A datamart demo for a telecom application
using Oracle Server, on AlphaServer 4000, running on Windows NT, was
claimed to be the only VLM solution on the Windows NT platform. BMC
Software Solutions from USA used this forum to acquaint viewers with its
Patrol application and data management products that support Oracle 8,
among other RDBMSs. Infosys launched BancSmart, an Enterprise
Information System that comprises of a centralised data warehouse, and
dependent data marts for specific business areas.
Captive Audience
Though it's the Indian clone of the main Oracle OpenWorld, held at San
Francisco annually, it orchestrated a wholesome content for hundreds of
Oracle developers, serious users and prospects--with matching style (including
Remo Fernandes for an evening). Stressing the network computing paradigm
and its advantage to business, Oracle weaved it well with the applications
developed by its partners in India. The largest database vendor's message to its
users and developers, though subtly worded, was clear: Be with us.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Regards,
Joe... |
