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Politics : President Barack Obama
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (143978)6/29/2014 9:06:24 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Read Replies (1) of 149317
 
Those are some pretty BIG 'what ifs'.

(Unless you are talking about Argentina of course.... :-)

With what ifs that significant you could make a case for most anything that you wanted to see... aiming for whatever conclusion you had in mind.

By the way... as for myself I'd prefer to use the experimental "trimmed mean personal consumption deflator" that the Dallas Fed used to publish. (Don't know if they still do....)

It was *not* the typical "smoothed P.C.E." we usually see in the Press (which is just the standard P.C.E. with food and energy inputs always tossed out), rather it used what I think was a statistically better smoothing technique and tossed out each month whichever two inputs were the greatest outliers that month.... Might be food and energy one month or might be some other inputs... always would be one outlier biasing upwards and the other biasing downwards that was redacted from the series. Result was a smoother, less jerky trendline. (With, I think, faster predictive validity).
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